To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (116087 ) 3/27/2002 5:20:35 PM From: Jim Willie CB Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472 I was gonna relax on this thread, but you ask questions photo silver recovery brings 150 million oz yearly this is steady photo consumption is growing at 4-5% yearly, steadily recovery goes hand in hand, zero gain Bush tried to bring tax cuts to help stave off recession check history books for several successful such endeavors Congress thwarted his efforts gutting the main thrust of the tax cuts and diluting their effect into next ten years thus, no real tax cut stimulus as for federal deficits, read the newspaper about Afghan war, airport security, and the meaningless Dept Homoland Security, big costs not to mention rampant unemployment costs from the Clinton inspired bubblicious collapse the belief that a rise in USTB interest rates will bring a stronger dollar is pure horseshit the dollar dont trade on interest rates it trades on the effect on the largest stock market in the world it trades on the effect on the largest bond market in the world you will see this by year end European rates are higher, US will only close the gap higher rates will send money out of bonds higher bond rates exacerbate already insane tech stock valuations and PEratios money will flee stocks, flee bonds shorterm bonds will see biggest loss in money flow if lower rates were good for stocks and dollar (via financial markets for stocks & bonds)... why on earth do you expect higher rates to do the same ??? opposite side of same double-edge sword higher rates are the death knell for stocks unless of course, they show significantly higher earnings, and earnings growth trend I expect neither higher rates will torpedo stocks and bonds negative real rates were a sentinel signal to bond holders get ready to abandon bonds !!! this signal occurred in December2001, I believe that is precisely why you see interest renewed in gold imagine holding 2-yr and 5-yr bonds now rates rise and poof, you kiss goodbye 10-20% higher rates mean S&P fair value gets pushed down not up while GreenSlime lowered rates kept the housing market afloat, it puts the entire bond market at risk when he reverses his insanity LIQUIDITY is another euphemistic word for INFLATION we have floods of liquidity, but no inflation ?!?!?!? get real, inflation is at the doorstep why else would the bond market response last spring be to rise the 10-yr yield ? it was these extraordinary experts interpreting GreenSnot's moves as wildly inflationary thus, GreenScrotum killed the 30-yr bond he tried to force down 10-yr yield, AND FAILED following bond experts is a real education they are not bond vigilantes, they are experts they are cutting off recovery, they are expecting inflation if higher rates shore up the dollar, why is GreenyMan delaying the inevitable like a trip to the gallows ??? that is one reason why Morgan Stanley issued bonds today they expect a hard time later, when the new declining bond scenario is established I expect a rush to issue bonds, before the nightmare you got it backwards as for inflation, I expect inflation to arrive from three sources the financial illiterate investors will not know what hit them I dont think that includes you is every change bullish for stocks ??? jeez / jim