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To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (116087)3/27/2002 5:20:35 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
I was gonna relax on this thread, but you ask questions

photo silver recovery brings 150 million oz yearly
this is steady
photo consumption is growing at 4-5% yearly, steadily
recovery goes hand in hand, zero gain

Bush tried to bring tax cuts to help stave off recession
check history books for several successful such endeavors
Congress thwarted his efforts
gutting the main thrust of the tax cuts
and diluting their effect into next ten years
thus, no real tax cut stimulus
as for federal deficits, read the newspaper about Afghan war, airport security, and the meaningless Dept Homoland Security, big costs
not to mention rampant unemployment costs from the Clinton inspired bubblicious collapse

the belief that a rise in USTB interest rates will bring a stronger dollar is pure horseshit
the dollar dont trade on interest rates
it trades on the effect on the largest stock market in the world
it trades on the effect on the largest bond market in the world

you will see this by year end
European rates are higher, US will only close the gap
higher rates will send money out of bonds
higher bond rates exacerbate already insane tech stock valuations and PEratios
money will flee stocks, flee bonds

shorterm bonds will see biggest loss in money flow

if lower rates were good for stocks and dollar (via financial markets for stocks & bonds)...
why on earth do you expect higher rates to do the same ???
opposite side of same double-edge sword
higher rates are the death knell for stocks
unless of course, they show significantly higher earnings,
and earnings growth trend
I expect neither

higher rates will torpedo stocks and bonds
negative real rates were a sentinel signal to bond holders
get ready to abandon bonds !!!
this signal occurred in December2001, I believe
that is precisely why you see interest renewed in gold
imagine holding 2-yr and 5-yr bonds now
rates rise and poof, you kiss goodbye 10-20%
higher rates mean S&P fair value gets pushed down
not up

while GreenSlime lowered rates kept the housing market afloat,
it puts the entire bond market at risk when he reverses his insanity

LIQUIDITY is another euphemistic word for INFLATION
we have floods of liquidity, but no inflation ?!?!?!?
get real, inflation is at the doorstep
why else would the bond market response last spring be to rise the 10-yr yield ?
it was these extraordinary experts interpreting GreenSnot's moves as wildly inflationary
thus, GreenScrotum killed the 30-yr bond
he tried to force down 10-yr yield, AND FAILED

following bond experts is a real education
they are not bond vigilantes, they are experts
they are cutting off recovery, they are expecting inflation

if higher rates shore up the dollar, why is GreenyMan delaying the inevitable like a trip to the gallows ???

that is one reason why Morgan Stanley issued bonds today
they expect a hard time later, when the new declining bond scenario is established
I expect a rush to issue bonds, before the nightmare

you got it backwards

as for inflation, I expect inflation to arrive from three sources
the financial illiterate investors will not know what hit them
I dont think that includes you

is every change bullish for stocks ???
jeez
/ jim