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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (44664)	3/27/2002 5:48:19 PM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

as per AG musings the bubble predates 97

To: LTK007 who wrote (44664)	3/27/2002 6:23:15 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 99280

Hi Max, It took forever for my IW to signal a bullish condition last Fall. We had a nice run afterwards. At this point, the market is going to have to "earn" its way up. Elaine Garzarelli many years ago pointed out that the sum of a broadly based P/E and short term interest rates is a near constant value (right around "20"). If it gets much above that, it's bearish; much below it and it's bullish. Here's what that graph looks like: aim-users.com (a couple of weeks out of date) It was "tricked" by the P/Es at the end of the bubble expansion in 2000, but otherwise all the way back to '82 has been a pretty good indicator. Best regards, Tom PS: IW/AIM Newsletter aim-users.com