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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rkral who wrote (58711)	3/29/2002 3:36:29 AM
From: bambs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

the reason why gold is not off topic on this thread is because of it's ties to interest rates. I posted here back in 2000 that we were at the end of a 20 year bull market. and at the end of a 20 year bear market in gold. I said that interest rates cuts would come down to 2% before the real collapse began. I said that long rates would then start to creep up as people fear inflation. the feds hands are now tied. if they raise rates it will crush the banks and gse like fnm. also all those with variable mortgages. the huge amount of short term debt out there will prevent the fed from raising rates. inflation will be allowed to come in. as people flee the long term bond market and global investors fear being over wieght the US dollar. Gold will soar. the big move in gold will happen when it takes out $800. (likely in the next few years) as long as it's under $800 people can say..you are still a loser if you were in it since 1980. as for csco...as interest rates creep it's customers will feel a liquidity squeeze. as i said back in 2000. the bond market is closed for telecom companies. many of csco's big customers are going junk status or bust. as interest rates rise, fair value for p/e's will drop. by the end of this year there will be an all out crisis in the bond market as liquidity dries up...either that or the dollar will tank as the fed becomes the lone provider of liquidity for bankrupt companies. csco will join nt and lu in the single digits. bambs