Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sag who wrote (116108)	3/27/2002 9:10:14 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 152472

Additionally you indicate that you only ran numbers out for ten years, my example runs twenty years. no, i stated that i run the numbers out to 30 years. i should add parenthetically that i run these numbers like 25% CAGR only "for the sake of argument". i think it is highly unlikely that QCOM will achieve 25% CAGR for a whole decade, though they could of course achieve it in individual years. Your figure implies approximately 1.31 billion shares outstanding! i think you are misunderstanding how this math works. here is the simple explanation. in year 1, there is $X of earnings, divided by share count Y (i.e., 767 million shares or whatever). in year 2, there is $X(earnings growth rate) of discounted earnings, divided by sharecount Y(assumed sharecount growth rate). and so on. i do not divide Year 1's earnings by Year 30's share count (as you seem to think i do). nor do i divide Year 30's earnings by Year 1's share count (as you seem to be doing). each Year's earnings is divided by the share count for that year. that is how i get the EPS for each year. perhaps you do not think QCOM will add any more shares, but they have tended to add shares in the past and i don't see them stopping anytime soon. believe your opinion and drug company analogy with regard to patents would differ from that of Qualcomm's patent attorneys. do you mean to say QCOM has some special exclusion that prevents their patents from expiring? the typical bull argument is to focus on licenses instead of patents. but what are licenses? they are contracts that are ultimately backed up by patents. these patents will expire. when the key patents expire, what is backing up the licenses? that is the argument i have yet to see a bull answer satisfactorily. all JMHO and i could be completely wrong.