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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moominoid who wrote (5895)	3/29/2002 5:31:56 PM
From: Dan Duchardt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

David, If you can't see a cycle on the spectrum then it is a significant deterministic cycle. I was with you until the last sentence. Perhaps because of the context of my exposure to things like Fourier analysis of time series, I would expect one of your "predictable" cycles to have a relatively narrow spectrum (perhaps with many harmonics and all that). If the spectrum itself lacks structure (can't see a cycle on the spectrum???), the time series is white noise. I expect I am misinterpreting what you are saying. Perhaps you could elaborate a bit more. Dan

To: Moominoid who wrote (5895)	4/2/2002 9:06:46 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi David, Most Market cycles are presumably stochastic, since they are variable in length. Cycle students find that cycles that are very fixed and reliable for a period of time then tend to dissipate and also to change periodicity. If you can't see a cycle on the spectrum then it is a significant deterministic cycle. Could you tell us more on this point. I'm not sure what you mean about not seeing a cycle on the spectrum; could you give an illustration. many thanks, John