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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (33443)	3/28/2002 10:28:44 AM
From: dawgfan2000	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Hey TW, You are a good sport about being a glutton for punishment (-ggg-), taken a look at HWP yet (or anyone else for that matter)? It seems to be pricing the CPQ merger into the price, but my hedge is HWP votes against it, which would be a plus for the current share price. Any thoughts? BB picks up on Monday, ahhh. The boys of summer return ;) cheers!

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (33443)	3/30/2002 11:41:43 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

All charts updated, daily, weekly, strong stocks and 3 line break along with last night's COT charts on our site at Marketswing. I also have pushed up the Economic Trends report for April and though it is a huge download in PDF format, it is well worth the read this month. A lot of data and charts showing Consumer purchasing strength, large ticket item purchases, GDP growth and some long term growth charts etc from the Fed. Note how all growth in GDP has been in Government spending, imports and consumption, no US output contributed to the GDP growth yet and those indicators that point to healthy times are still actually declining. Compensation per hour and employee costs are still dropping and according to Fed data, there isn't much to point to inflation concerns though the CRB and Gold seem to be indicating otherwise. Duration of unemployment is still climbing though if looking at it in TA terms, we are currently at resistance thus one would expect a turn downward. -gggg- Connect the prior peaks on that chart. Available labor supply is back up to 1997 levels so not much threat of people demanding pay raises as they can now be easily replaced. Diposable income is dropping sharply though ot yet down to prior recession levels yet. Still the rate of decline is alarming and shows that all that debt is starting to pile up to where even J6P is realizing he is in over his head here. One strange thing I noticed is that debt as a percentage of disposable income is not that high historically yet the percentage of debt payments in relation to disposable income is near all time highs if not already at an all time high. I am not sure I have an explanation for this unless it is due to past debt being mostly housing at lower interest rates where today's consumer is mostly in high interest credit card debt and money tree type loans. This seems to be the only plausable reason I can figure for below historical debt yet higher than normal payments when put in the context of disposable income. Investment in relation to GDP, Fixed asset investment and Nonresidential fixed/equipment and software investment are still in steep decline with no signs of turning up. Federal Debt has ticked upwards with the surplus ticking down. There is a nice pie chart showing what countries are exporting the most to us. Trade is shown still falling off a cliff and there is also a nice chart showing corporate profits for all categories then separating out the non financial ones. The non financials are in steep decline and I mean steep steep decline. Banks and mortgage companies taking advantage of low interest rates are making money and apparently no one else is. It has a link as usual from the "Reading" page linked up top here but the direct link is marketswing.com Again, this is a large download of over 3 Meg. Some things of note, though growth seems to be returning and is back to what some would argue is normal rates, it is also having to recoup the drops in the past quarters and the bounce doesn't seem to be over taking that decline. In other words, if you drop 3 quarters at 5 then have a three quarters of growth at 5, you are still behind at least 7. It takes double the gains to equal out the same percentage of declines. ================================ **** Important though long term and nothing to do with the short or mid term....... If this correlation holds between workers in the work force and the market action and it is important enough that Alan Greenspan keyed in on it in his speech that I posted a few weeks back on the "references/The Fed" thread, then what happens in 2010 when they all start retiring and we lose our workers. These charts show why Greenspan is pushing Congress to start inviting immigrant workers here and we need to start bringing in more educated and desirable types to our shores.......... boomspeed.com ===================================== Market debt in relation to GDP...... online.wsj.com Good Luck, Lee