Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (116156)	3/28/2002 1:46:04 PM
From: Ruffian	Respond to of 152472

<i think you didn't understand what i was saying, because my point is an obvious one> Rude dude............must have been raised in Orange County...............lol!

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (116156)	3/28/2002 2:24:51 PM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 152472

Mucho, you might wish to read the following article concerning the various ways of calculating the equity risk premium. The method and the time frame one chooses appear to affect the number significantly. ibbotson.com I'm not advocating any specific ERP figure as I really don't know enough about to talk competently about it. However, I can see that the appropriate figure and means of calculating it are issues on which considerable debate has taken place. Given the debate and various methodologies, it's difficult for me to accept any ERP as the appropriate historical norm. It's an interesting field, and I'm still looking at it. but volatility in and of itself is no measure of long term expected return. expected return can only be derived from fundamental value. Agreed.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (116156)	3/29/2002 12:02:03 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

<...the equity risk premium has varied throughout history but regresses to its historical norm. there is no reason to think this won't happen again. > Until the 1970s, US$ was set by a gold standard. Since then, US$ has been a free-floating bunch of green paper with only Uncle Al between it and Argentinian-style currencies. I have no idea why owning real assets, producing real products, which real people want to buy and pay a pretty penny for, should attract a risk premium compared with a currency made up of borrow-and-hope. When money was gold, and interest rates were paid on borrowed gold, there was good reason to consider high-friction assets like shares to be dodgy and needing higher pay rates. Currencies, such as the Argentinian, the hyperinflation Mark, the Russian rouble double trouble, the Mexican mayhem, and all the rest which have suffered sudden implosion are disasters waiting to happen. Even the mighty US$ is just a promise on a wing and a prayer. What happens if tomorrow I decided, along with umpty million others, to repatriate my hard-earned money and abandon the false profit of the full faith and credit of the Federal Reserve system? It's a Good Friday today. I was explaining to daughter Emily how Easter is remembrance of the conflict between the individual and universality and human to human contact instead of a Roman Empire state-based dominance hierarchy. I was telling her that humans should interact on a volitional basis, person to person without autocratic controllers getting in the way and confiscating part of the proceeds to use against us. That's why Jesus died on the cross. A constant reminder of the brutality of the state against individuals. It's ironic that a company like QUALCOMM, with a strong Jewish component, is bringing the freedom and human-to-human realm which Jesus Christ was promulgating, opposed by both the old-style Jewish habits and Roman Empire toga crowd. It's ironic that a die-hard atheist like me has given my life's savings to Dr Jacobs and co, to support the endeavour to bring about the second coming; It - the sentient cyberspace which will bring peace on earth and goodwill to all. I do enjoy Easter Eggs. If I own QUALCOMM, I own assets which are producing very high value for 6 billion people. If there's a financial collapse and the US$ turns to muck instead of brass, CDMA will be relatively unaffected. If CDMA is bought using shares of QUALCOMM [or part shares of QUALCOMM and perhaps a mix of many companies in a QQQ-style index], then why does anyone need a US$ to transact business and store their hard-earned efforts for future consumption? Also, the historical norm involved at a time when lives were nasty, brutish and short. Returns on investment were harder to come by, more likely to be stolen, confiscated by governments or destroyed in war. Even if the assets were safe, life expectancy meant it was better to spend and enjoy today than save and invest for retirement after age 70, which few achieved. There are other factors too which make the historic norm an irrelevancy. There is no physical constant defining some historic P:E standard to which we must revert. A P:E is a risk-managing guess by millions of people on the probabilities surrounding their lives. There are large differences between now and then. There should be no risk premium attached to QUALCOMM and Irwin Jacobs' currency compared with Alan Green$pan's currency. When Uncle Al has been pensioned-off and the US$ is a shadow of its former self in global transactions and stores of value, CDMA will be sending encrypted Q-currency whistling through cyberspace for payments, loans, and stores of value. It'll be stored on multiple servers around the world and debited and credited instantaneously. US$ is a financial black hole waiting to happen. We are approaching the event horizon. Ride CDMA phragmented photons to the multi-dimensional anti-gravity world of cyberspace! Don't be sucked in!!! [A triple exclamation no less!!!!] Mqurice