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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (82930)	3/28/2002 4:06:53 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I think Russia is helping keep prices down, however I think Bush moves are starting to piss Putin off and they may not be so acomodating. The COT is now short and if economy doesnt boom oil prices dont have much more on the up side ST. I would wait for a pull back if you wanted to get in that sector.

To: HairBall who wrote (82930)	3/28/2002 4:18:49 PM
From: thestockrider	Respond to of 99985

Military Fuel Buying Up for Mideast Bases Mon Mar 25,12:54 PM ET By Richard Valdmanis NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. military, the world's largest purchaser of petroleum, is buying oil at rates not seen since the Persian Gulf War (news - web sites) as it apparently seeks to fuel the Bush administration's fight against terrorism. The Pentagon (news - web sites) has tendered for some 7.4 million barrels of fuel above and beyond normal contracts for its Mideast bases over the past three months, according to the Department of Defense (news - web sites) (DOD). This mimics emergency buys made after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 and dwarfs supplemental purchases during the NATO (news - web sites) air wars against Serbia in 1999. The U.S. military's big appetite for oil, which has underpinned strong petroleum prices in recent weeks, has intensified speculation that the United States may broaden its fight against terrorism beyond Afghanistan (news - web sites), possibly to Iraq, as tensions continue to boil in the region... also Message 17238039 Message 17221474 Message 17041236

To: HairBall who wrote (82930)	3/29/2002 2:36:05 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG. Some interesting energy comments posted already. So I'll just share some of my own macro thinking about where we've been, where we are and where we're going in energy, and how I've traded based on that read since the week before Christmas. (If this were a PM to you, would be a lot shorter as some of follows are issues you and I have been familiar with for years but is included for the benefit of less experienced readers & traders). Then, a little reflecting on the nature of nuisance posters which you and I have had some good discussion about, off board. After that, I've gotta run, before my older son drags me out the door<lol>. =========================================================================== Like the other early cyclicals, oil service (OSX) put in a major bottom last Fall land has been in a powerful primary uptrend consistent with an economic recovery, sub-par though such recovery may turn out to be. In the credit where credit is due dept? My friend Slider called of THE bottom in the OSX index, back in early October of last year. Then, yours truly made THE cyclical bottom call for the natural gas stocks in late February on Strictly Drilling II. Message 17109030 stockcharts.com[w,a]dacayyay[pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iut!Ub20!Lp20,20]&pref=G As was the case with Slider's excellent bottom call for the oil service group, almost nobody bought into my call over a month ago. Nor did they participate in the powerful gasser rally from the week before Christmas into the 1st week of January when I sold my trading blocks (exhortations also posted at that time<g>). Almost everyone on the various energy related web threads missed the boat in the energy sector. Especially natural gas, even though there're been several excellent entry opportunities. This is not to diss or personally criticize anyone here or on the other threads I contribute to. It's just the way the market works. The vast majority is ALWAYS on the wrong side of the trade at major sector turning points. Let's look at recent history in the natural gas stocks: There was a huge institutional portfolio blowout aka capitulation in the NG stocks in late January into early February. Result? Almost everybody was very bearish when the the time to buy arrived, just a few weeks later. I'd been stopped out of a ton of gassers in mid-Jan with a tiny net net profit just before the waterfall decline got rolling (again posted about at the time). So.......I was loaded with cash and had no negative emotions holding me back when the buy window opened in late February. It's easy to explain, now. But at the time it was NOT easy to do OR to stick my neck out with so many real time posts of my calls and trades. The market is always a challenge not matter how many times you've successfully timed sector turns over the years. As a pro, whose been making these kinds of calls for many years, it's challenging and a lot of fun but it's not the big deal to me that some with little or no experience want to make it out to be. And it's not ego or bragging to just - do what I do - for a living. And, then enjoy a little celebration when I nail one.<g> I'm not referring to the overwhelming majority of other folks here, when I say this. But what I think happens in the minds of those who become negative posters and bashers is they get hung up on trying to compete with those who have vastly more experience and expertise in the game. Then predictably, because they've not learned to control their emotions where money is involved, they get resentful and provocative when they consistently fail to measure up to the unrealistic expectations they have, again due to insufficient experience in the markets. The upshot is that they either start beating up on themselves in their posts OR they aim their frustration outward via sniping and baiting the few who get it right most of the time. It's my business to simply be right MORE OFTEN than I'm wrong. That's all that any good trader - pro or a talented amateur - can reasonably expect. But, the few who become resentful bashers try to hype the heck out of the minority of instances where you and I have sometimes made those inevitiable unprofitable calls. It's really too bad. Because it discourages contributions on these web threads by those of us who have the most to offer readers interested enough in becoming better investors and traders. Fortunately, there are threads - like this one - where bashers are kicked off and permanently banned. When a few friends and I planned and set up SD II (almost a year ago) we agreed on a list of disruptive, negative people to exclude. The better atmosphere and higher quality of posting that selectivity created quickly propelled SD II into frequent appearances on the SI top 10 hot threads. And that's continued ever since with very low levels of thread conflict, ever since. The idea was a contrarian one. You know only too well how most thread monitors play the numbers game trying to get the maximum number posters. However, my idea was that if you went in the opposite direction and eliminated all the negative posters and concentrated on creating a good ball park, the best players would want to play there. <If you build it he will come> Even with a small core number of high quality posters and good chemistry you will have a far superior and much more highly bookmarked thread. And to the extent that continues, a small thread will continue to attract good posters who don't want to be annoyed or distracted by attackers. Best regards Isopatch

To: HairBall who wrote (82930)	3/29/2002 4:00:19 PM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 99985

Russia Journal re: Oil Exports russiajournal.com Some comprehensive but dated material re: Russian Oil. Somewhat biased from a U.S. Gov issue standpoint eia.doe.gov eia.doe.gov Up to Date Country Analysis including Caspian Sea Report eia.doe.gov New Violence in the Middle East could impact the Energy sector immediately...Arrafat under Siege washingtonpost.com