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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Murray Grummitt who wrote (45052)	3/29/2002 9:14:43 AM
From: puborectalis	Respond to of 99280

Three More to Eye: American Eagle, Xerox and Wilson's By Glenn Curtis Columnist It's vital that investors maintain a list of potential investment candidates so they're ready to pounce when the market comes around. Below is a list of three stocks that I think could soar any day now, depending on when we get the go signal.

To: Murray Grummitt who wrote (45052)	3/29/2002 12:14:43 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Murray. RE: Seasonality. . . <<The VTO report of the April 3rd & 4th phenomenon is based on how many occurrences? The Stock Traders Almanac, which bases their Nasdaq probability on 28 years of observation, have a 65.5% probability on the 3rd (moderately high) a 51.7% on the 4th (neutral) of the Nasdaq rising. >> VTO has a list of the Nasdaq performance on every day of the year, based on every time there's been trading on that day since the Nasdaq opened (in 1971). That information is here (scroll down for April). vtoreport.com April 4th is historically up only 23.81% of the time (5 out of 21). April 3rd is historically up 59.09% of the time. Both days have an average loss during their history. Now, this means absolutely nothing about this coming year, of course. Anyone who remembers back to December 31st of last year knows that Larry's trend paradox can be proven at any time (December 31st had never been a down Nasdaq day. Ever. And then. . . poof! This past December 31st was a big, down day). I wonder how the VTO site and the Stock Traders Almanac site seem to have different results for each day, since I suspect both of them use the same base statistics. You said the Stock Traders Almanac uses 28 years of study, so perhaps it hasn't added the last two years worth of data? I don't know. Perhaps, like the different TICK readings from multiple sites, there's a mystery we'll never solve. the freep

To: Murray Grummitt who wrote (45052)	3/30/2002 6:23:35 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

Nasdaq Seasonality in April: It's your $ of course, but personally I think the ave % return is more important than the % of up days. The site address is www.vtoreport.com. The database encompasses 30yrs. Here's what it shows for the 3rd, 4th and 5th: 3rd: up 59% of the time, cumulatively -0.53% ave loss. 4th: up 24% of the time, ave -0.44% loss. 5th: up 70% of the time, ave +0.79% gain. The 3rd is a bit of a statistical anomaly, in which the Nasdaq has gone up almost 3/5th of the time, yet gains tended to be small, and losses much larger. I'm in the process of completing my w/e analysis, and am unsure whether I'll try to play the seasonal strength from the 5th thru the 18th. 33% invested right now. One unique factor this year is that the Nasdaq significantly underperformed the DJIA and S&P 500 in Q1, so portfolio managers who didn't want to show losers being increased in their portfolio for Q1 may be more inclined to buy Nasdaq stocks after the 31st.