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To: elmatador who wrote (19743)3/29/2002 12:46:58 PM
From: sylvester80  Respond to of 21876
 
Wrong. The street capitulates at least 6 months ahead. Bottom is already in for the street IMO. This quarter and next is your flat line in cap ex IMO. Carriers are running at 80-90% capacity and their systems can't handle that. 2nd half of 2002 they will spend the biggest chunk of their money. Their cash flow has picked up considerably since the many CLEC bankruptcies. Stop looking at the glass half empty. It's half full and is getting fuller every minute.

Closest thing to reality of what is going on and where we are going from here can be found in this recent cover story from USA Today:

usatoday.com

In fact the recent JNPR CC confirmed exactly what this guy is talking about. That carriers are running at a 80%-90% capacity righ now and systems are not menat to handle such a load. The 2nd half of 02 is going to start the growth in the industry again. There is no way around it. Cash flow has also been improving nicely on the incumbents with all the CLEC bankruptcies.

JMHO.