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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (20917)	3/29/2002 11:37:42 AM
From: foundation	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196612

"..interim GPRS step being a failure.." ========== I think there is one barometer to watch regarding GPRS: China Mobile. Mobile is the only GSM carrier who may speak of GPRS in an honest and candid fashion. 1) Mobile has clearly stated that it "must install many more new base stations to support GPRS". *** Will Mobile announce funding and contracts for cell splitting 2G networks? They'd better hurry. 2) Mobile has GPRS upgraded a small percentage of its network. *** Will Mobile announce funding and contracts to expand GPRS upgrades? Contrary to vendor projections, will China 2/2.5GSM infrastructure contracts grow in 2002? They'd better hurry. It's curious that Mobile did not upgrade networks to GPRS wholesale, as was the case for nearly all 3GSM carriers... or perhaps it's not curious at all. Mobile knows Unicom's 1x timetable and priorities - which were made rather clear this week. From a strategic standpoint, it would seem mandatory that Mobile respond... immediately. Mobile appears motivated to wait and watch. If Mobile does not embrace GPRS as its "bridge to 3G", what happens in Europe will little matter.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (20917)	3/30/2002 8:25:05 PM
From: brational	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 196612

while I agree with most your assessments, the path that I see is fundamentally different from yours Ramsey I don't believe we disagree at all. My post was addressing the main drivers in Qcom's business as it is likely to shape up in the next 12 to 18 months-- and the items that are likely to impact its stock price during this period. I do not see the market placing much value in the longer term story for the time being, or at least it is shrewdly evaluating this story on the basis of the unfolding evidence wherever 1X is being deployed. I fully agree that GPRS has set the entire industry backwards. It is a lousy concept, that has also been poorly executed, and is unfortunately leading to erroneous conclusions about the demand for data services and 3G. Rather than concluding that 1X is better, they are concluding that 3G is useless-- which is why we need strong unequivocal success in KDDI's launch, as well as in the US with Sprint and Verizon. One announcement that causes me some concern is Voicestream's decision to forgo w-cdma altogether, and stop at the EDGE (what's that?), with intensive 802.11b/a deployments in selected urban locations where demand for data is high (building on its acquisition of Mobilstar). Chances are Voicestream would be consolidated with another carrier before that happens. Regards BR