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Technology Stocks : Leap Wireless International (LWIN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pierre who wrote (1828)	3/29/2002 1:46:44 PM
From: rharshman	Respond to of 2737

Pierre:- You may be right about a sale, but I , for one, will be very surprised if that is management's strategy. Within the 40 market plan, and allowing for some dilution in connection with the next refinancing, a positive cash flow combined with earnings of $5 plus per share by 2005 or 2006 is a plausible possibility. I have the feeling, perhaps a misguded one, that management is expecting that kind of performance to make their equity interest valuable rather than an early buyout. LWIN management has proven its marketing capability. Now they have to demonstrate their asset management capability,(financial discipline in balance sheet management.) So far I hsve seen no reason to doubt they will succeed in both areas. . ..

To: Pierre who wrote (1828)	3/29/2002 1:48:38 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2737

I think if the business model is on track, and maybe ahead of schedule after the next couple of quarters, LEAP will be acquired by a major player with deep pockets. I think this scenario was a major component in pcstels interest in LEAP. Unfortunately, I think I might have to agree.... The problem is that the wireless space moves too quickly to have your expansion plans on hold for 18-24 months. The covenant basically restricts Leap from launching any new markets until the 4th quarter of '03. There could be any number of new developments between now and then that would hurt Leap's ability to duplicate their current success. How well would Leap do if they are the second flat-rate player into a market? They wouldnt get all of the free press that they currently get at the launch. Also, there are a finite number of people that are attracted to plans like Leap's (25-30%?). The overall penetration rate will probably be above 60% so the markets that Leap has been successful with should already have been targeted. I think HDR is a wild card in all of this....also, the ability of Leap to get new bank financing could change some of the variables. However, I think it is increasingly likely that Leap will eventually be taken over. Slacker