Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: westpacific who wrote (17572)	3/29/2002 6:26:50 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi west, <<What does this say to me>> To me, it says (a) The Dow can be rationally be anywhere between 5227 to 12,716, or 10-15% annual compounded growth since 1982; (b) The Nasdaq 1,345-3,273, same math; (c) bubble ecnomics and indices fiddling ballooned the Nasdaq, and puffed up the Dow; (d) Reflexivity has not yet done its cleansing work; (e) Recuperative recession was cut short, for the moment (cutting short the sleep cycle over extended period of time is not natural and less wise); (f) Other issues took shape and adopted form: -Baby boom coursing through the economy -Lexus buying as opposed to capital asset formation on the backs of savings; -Strength of dollar as a function of safe-haven and of bubblecomics -Japan implosion; BTW, I just finished F.I.A.S.C.O. and it has a fascinating description of how Morgan Stanley used Fannie and Freddie's mortgage securities to fashion a scheme of fraud (author's own choice of word)) for Japanese financial institutions to hide past losses in the future -China vs. SE Asia/Taiwan/Japan manufacturing -WAT -Japan money funding US real estate fizz and foam, ala 1980s all over again Like a chess game puzzle in the newspapers, in mid-game setup. I do not like the setup. The king is the USD. There are too many combination of moves that can result in 'checkmate in three moves', and we are hoping that CHANCE will not fumble upon any of the combinations. Meantime, the maestro is fresh out of queen, rooks, knights, pawns, and one bishop. And so your rant on M3 and equity valuation resonates. Chugs, Jay