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Gold/Mining/Energy : Nuvo Research Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Montana Wildhack who wrote (9129)	3/29/2002 4:56:27 PM
From: Montana Wildhack	Respond to of 14101

Depending on how you interpret what's important in reality (everybody does), looking at something like this may be more or less interesting. The basic assumption is using a percentage of the market information as we know it to size US sales. The second point is looking at the potential effect of time. Two things around this are the change from talking about 5 billion a couple of years ago versus 8 now (post COX2) and the very recent information posted by Tom. If the arthritis market grows at 15% over the next several years (versus the more than 17% in the last year) and the Pennsaid price increases are 5% per year (versus the 10% mentioned), then DMX Cdn $ US revenue should look like this using a 1.6 exchange rate in 2004: 2004 1 2 3 4 5 6 7.5 10 17.5% 38.7 77.4 116.1 154.8 193.5 232.2 290.3 387.1 20.0% 44.2 88.5 132.7 176.9 221.2 265.4 331.8 442.4 22.5% 49.8 99.5 149.3 199.1 248.8 298.6 373.2 497.7 25.0% 55.3 110.6 165.9 221.2 276.5 331.8 414.7 553.0 27.5% 60.8 121.7 182.5 243.3 304.1 365.0 456.2 608.3 Using these assumptions, the $1 EPS number (Cdn) happens around 2% of the market in 2004. Dispensing with future, just ask the question do you think J&J could sell $160 million worth of product in the US this year if they had launched a year ago? (13th to 24th months) While we're at it ask yourself how low that number can be from their perspective to make them interested. My guess is they're thinking in terms of $500 million plus a few years out as an interest level point (some 4% at that time) at a minimum (as a planning number). That's around 200 million Cdn for DMX sales and closer to $2 EPS. (satirical) Wow. Going way out on a limb here. Wolf