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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (45127)	3/29/2002 9:45:44 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 99280

Richard: You missed January 2002, January 2001 and September 2000 all in which the market peaked below 160 on this measure and rolled over. And the more important point is that we are higher now in this one measure than in January of this year without a higher high in the Comp. or NDX. Never said 160 was a magic number. But it is noteworthy that the 13 ema last went above 112 during the bubble months fo 2000. It may have touched in May of last year. Never said we might not go higher in this number, but the probabilities do not favor it and it is like betting on the creation of another bubble as represented by this one indicator. I suggested there was a negative divergence with the January reading which is close in time. This suggests we are still in bear market which will give you the lower highs despite in the big averages anyway despite the increase in the NAHL here at this point in time. I also would say that it is a big red light flashing here along with other indicators. I will say that it is a high risk/low reward bet IMO to be long here. It is the equivalent of being short when this thing is doing its -500 prints and looking for more downside because it could go lower. As far as losers being tossed out, more data would be needed to make an assessment on this impact as the averages are not static and winners may have moved to a different exchange and other things may have been added as well, be they winners or losers or whatever at different points in time.