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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (2506)	3/30/2002 9:41:08 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95622

Hi RtS, Here's my 2 cents on why this sector leads. Basic to this sectors belief is continuous improvement. The mantra of all participants is "an efficient business model" Key to this model is : No debt to service. Be first to do it - or the life cycle of the product may not allow you to fully depreciate the equipment invested(3 years at least) Horde cash - so R&D can continue(even at the bottom of a business cycle) - this innovation creates the next wave before the economy confirms the recovery. Innovative expansion occurs at the bottom. Capacity expansion occurs before the top Capacity expansion completion brings about the conclusion of the economic expansion as inventory gluts result in price/margin evaporation and that stops the cycle. This is the greatest industry group to be in - in our lifetimes.It is the greatest driver of wealth building globally. It is characterized by incredible business cycles that are very short in time duration. These cycles must become your friend - not your enemy. I have found that buying early - when all others declare falling off the abyss has just happens give you the best entry point but you must be patient and wait 12-18 months from then. Buying Early is important but Selling Early is MORE IMPORTANT. Lord knows I have learned all of the above the hard way.Being allured to greed I have missed the selling early part in my early investment years. Fortunately this characteristic also allows the most forgiveness.If you miss the cycle wait 2-3 years it will save your greedy A$$. What once gave me great fear has now become my greatest friend.I cannot for the life of me understand why anyone would want to invest in another industry group. Three to six hundred percent swings every 2-3 years is just as good as it gets. JMHO Bob