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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (22645)	3/30/2002 10:14:43 AM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hezbullah launches missiles - the second front is opened: reuters.com

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (22645)	3/30/2002 10:14:46 AM
From: Dayuhan	Respond to of 281500

This is not an outcome, this is a process leading to an outcome, of the three cited above I wish this were the case. I am not convinced that it is so. I do not think that the current increase in violence indicates that any long term resolution is near. This battle runs in cycles: violence flares, war erupts, the cycle runs down, the two sides settle into another hostile semi-truce and jockey for position in the next outbreak. The Arabs cannot drive the Israelis into the sea; they simply lack the capacity. The Israelis cannot physically eliminate or forcibly resettle the entire Palestinian population, not at least while they depend on American assistance to sustain their economy and their military forces. It is debatable whether they could do it at all, even without the public relations problems that ethnic cleansing on this scale would involve. Neither side seems even remotely likely to consider peaceful coexistence. A mutually destructive stalemate cannot last forever; this is true. It's lasted half a century, though, and I see no convincing reason to suppose that it could not last another half century, or longer.