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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: BigBull who wrote (22664)3/30/2002 12:57:49 PM
From: BigBull  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
Irael expands military efforts:

news.bbc.co.uk

Israel is intensifying its assault on Palestinian areas in the West Bank after trapping Yasser Arafat inside his shell-blasted Ramallah headquarters.
Defying a United Nations resolution calling for an Israeli withdrawal, tanks also surrounded the headquarters of Jibril Rajoub, the Palestinian security chief in the West Bank, just outside Ramallah.

Israeli incursions were also reported in Hebron and Beit Jala near Bethlehem.



To: BigBull who wrote (22664)3/30/2002 10:55:30 PM
From: Dayuhan  Respond to of 281500
 
Troop buildup in the Persian Gulf

There is always a visceral and manly satisfaction in contemplating and discussing the military side of these problems, the equipment, the tactics, the strategic options. It does not pay to forget, though, that wars are fought to achieve a political purpose, and if that purpose is not achievable and clearly defined it is possible to win every battle and still lose the war.

The fundamental obstacle we face in any action against Saddam is not the defeat of the Iraqi armed forces, or any other military problem. It is a political problem. A long-term occupation of Iraq would be a logistic and financial nightmare with huge bogdown potential. It would probably be politically unacceptable. If we remove Saddam without an occupation, we have no meaningful control over succession, leaving us with a strategically positioned leaderless loose cannon of a country in a highly volatile region, a country where 97% of the country is Muslim, 65% is Shi'ite, and fundamentalists already have a strong hold.

That seems like a pretty risky situation to me, and I think that any action against Iraq that does not commence with a clear and achievable endgame in mind will be pushing and perhaps exceeding the limits of acceptable risk.