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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Condor who wrote (22666)	3/30/2002 1:38:15 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

I'm mystified as to the usefullness of this tactic as it appears to be ludicrous on the surface. It seems to achieve nothing. Oh.. I think it makes perfect sense. Arafat would not, or could not, purge the West Bank and Gaza of extremist elements out of fear of his own assassination. Thus, the Israelis are doing it for him, section by section. If we can believe that the PLO could murder a 12 year old boy for good press then the decision to martyr Arafat ( without his permission ) seems entirely plausible Actually, Arafat is probably in the safest position that he's been in for years (as relates to his physical safety). He's effectively under "house arrest" within his own compound. The only way someone could assassinate him would be to get through the IDF forces surrounding the compound. Thus, Arafat only has to fear the Israelis, and the odds are high that the Sharon is unwilling to kill him. But he certainly wants him out of the way, and safe (from his own thugs) while they roust out the extremist elements. And there are reports right now that IDF forces are threatening to storm the compound (capture Arafat and expel him?) I would be very surprised if Arafat dies at Israeli hands. Hawk

To: Condor who wrote (22666)	3/30/2002 1:51:39 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

I have opined in past posts that it would be Sharon's job to clear the Bekka valley of the military threat building there. The Assault on Arafat will "draw them out". This appears to be working. Hezbollah can only hold fire for so long. The principle is (use'm or lose'm). The passover massacre has given Sharon the excuse (political internals) to call up reserves (30,000 men) which makes a concerted drive on Hezbullah possible. This Israeli offensive will also expose the PA as the total fraud that it is. It will show to the world what Oslo meant to the PA. It was merely a pretext for developing a massive staging post for total war against Israel. What will be most interesting is to see how the Arab "players" line up. Why? The upcoming assault on Iraq. Looks like Kuwait and Qatar are clearly in the US camp. Egypt and Jordan leaning towards US. If they do nothing during this Israeli assault, much will be revealed. Accelerators? You bet. Imo the US is almost ready. If news reports are to be believed then the US already has the logistical forces in place in the Persian gulf to commence offensive operations over a wide scale in the ME. Imo don't think that isn't getting noticed in Arab capitals.