Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (17623)	3/30/2002 3:50:38 PM
From: sandiegobear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

John, I agree completely with your assessment. I myself am in the oldest boomer cohort and have just recently retired. From my own observation of people my age that I know personally and from anecdotal information from friends and relatives ( which seems fairly reliable ) I think that 55 year olds are dropping out at alarming rates that have yet to be generally recognized. Some, like me, are relatively secure and others have been "downsized" and discouraged but I don't think many of are going to put fresh money into this market - ever. I will not hold anything overnight anymore, at least for the short term and even if things seem to improve in terms of valuation and safety, I can't see having more than 20% of my net worth in equities. As for the less fortunate 55ers, they seem to be spending down their savings and I can't imagine that there won't be a crisis among that group. Sorry for being so negative but I just can"t see it any other way.

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (17623)	3/30/2002 9:19:44 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

>>This is "conventional" wisdom. Centered around the mean age of the boomers.<< Yes, it is. What, do you really expect to see original thinking on SI? :) Conventional wisdom is not always wrong, though, particularly when it is supportable with easily verifiable fact. >>The oldest of the boomers are retiring now!<< Maybe retiring early now. The baby boom began after WWII and peaked around 1957, I believe. We should be good to go until 2010 +/-2. I am comfortable with this kind of macro market-timing. >>Seems to me you are saying "it's going to go up for a while before it goes down"...<< That's exactly what I am saying. It's not exactly a mind-blowing insight, but it is a very different position from "it has to go down now because valuations are too high and there's too much debt."