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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jill who wrote (49172)	3/30/2002 10:44:04 PM
From: RR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

U doing ok? Not seen u around much. RR (eom)

To: Jill who wrote (49172)	3/31/2002 4:08:48 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

methinks gold retrace was whole March month from 307 to 290, steady for couple weeks now Japan March Repatriation is over reco's from Merrill and Goldman mark new era emerging I think the Japanese mess will continue to push the dollar up how far? who knows? maybe they will delay their implosion climax another year I read they have put off mark2market rules for banks until April 2003 sometime this summer I expect a peak of US$/yen the US$ has slipped a little versus the Euro recently I think in simple terms regarding the dollar it has risen under Rubin aegis and continues, but it has risen for 8 years now it was in trouble in 1994, stronger every year since with annual $300B trade debt, with 40% of our $6200B federal debt in foreign hands, we have a supply / demand problem we have a ton of supply in foreign hands we have fresh new wartime federal deficits demanding even more foreign money the dollar and TBond are now two sides of same coin correction, two sides of same shitty piece of paper rates will be rising soon to encourage foreign buying excess dollar supply is bound to lead to pressure to sell some with new Euro in the game, I see splitting attention now between Dollar and Euro a slightly weakening dollar will begin some unfortunate effects on both our stock and bond markets and that will likely lead to further dollar erosion the pressures for inflation are coming from many sides now it has not yet shown up in the "doctored" CPI index but the MZM money supply growth in 20% range is frightening upcoming inflation will encourage higher rates also the Fed now has neutral bias, which next yields to tightening bias they must end the NEGATIVE REAL RATE environment most investors I talk to dont have an effing clue about bonds and the credit market in 1999-2000 the Fed spiked the stock bubble with higher rates IN 2001-2002 THE FED IS SPIKING THE BOND BUBBLE WITH LOWER RATES it represents his highest risk gambit to date in 10 years he is desperately trying to pull bond money into stocks it is not working in fact, I would say enough (small amount relatively) is going into gold/silver we have almost identical conditions as we had in 1975 with respect to interest rates being below inflation rate negative real rates discourage creditors from holding bonds imagine holding a few $M in bonds now in the next couple years if interest rates rise, you will be sitting on 15-30% losses exit bonds, enter what? with poor prospects of stocks, enter precious metals because inflation is being seeded now as rates rise, the realestate market becomes at risk Greenspan has put himself into a horrible "no-win" corner the bonds have peaked the dollar has peaked real estate might be peaking in a larger view, we have had a 10-year strong trend in paper (stocks, bonds, currency) during this time, commodity supplies have been neglected in constant$ terms, the CRB has been lower only in 1929 I think the commodity trend has started up oil/gas, gold/silver, copper, lumber, grains the winter draught in the MidWest and Plains will probably give us food price spikes soon too as much as oil/gas was a nobrainer in winter, gold/silver is a nobrainer until 2005 keep me posted on Teresa's gold views, thanks / jim

To: Jill who wrote (49172)	3/31/2002 4:19:46 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 65232

prediction on S&P and Dow if Dow does NOT drop to 7000 first, then 13000 will not be touched for five more years the rangebound Dow took 17 years thru the 1970's to get past 1000 I think its high PE will take years to grow into again for almost three years now, the Dow is rangebound it is now struggling to get past 10000 barrier that does NOT augur an imminent breakout upside it augurs a long consolidation phase esp since at least slightly higher rates are coming think commodities, the neglected sectors buy low, sell high look for strong pricing power and shortage in supplies oil, gas, silver look best to me in fact, I believe the next few wars will ALL be fought over commodities and I have not even discussed FOOD, WATER, OCEAN ACCESS / jim