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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Psycho-Social who wrote (45180)	3/31/2002 8:24:17 AM
From: Murray Grummitt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

The correlation coefficient of the Nasdaq for March between the Average Daily G/L and the Compq daily % was 0.386, not bad! The 1st and last calendar days of the month are always the 1st and last trading days of the month unless they are holidays, in which case they have no impact. Given that the VTO Report is for the years 71 to 01 and the STA for 72 to 00, they should correlate very well on those dates but they do not! March 1, March 31, April 1, April 30, 2002 VTO Report 65.22% 76.19% 55.56% 68.18% March 1, March 28, April 1, April 30, 2002 Stock T. 65.5% 69.0% 34.5% 79.3% I can explain the discrepancy, especially on April 1st; 21%! The VTO compilation on April 1st is for 19 years and the STA for 29. It seems that when the first trading day of April does not fall on April Fools Day it is usually bearish! The DJIA has been up 8 of the last 10 1st trading days of April, but of the 4 that were not on April 1st 2 were down. As you say an avg. % gain of 0.35% for April 1 in the Nasdaq is probably the most meaningful number. I'm still waiting for a buy signal on the Compq, it has not even hit the lower Bollinger Band yet.