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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Murray Grummitt who wrote (45184)	3/31/2002 2:31:24 PM
From: The Freep	Respond to of 99280

Murray and P-S -- I don't think either the VTO or Trader's Almanac data is "better" or "more useful." You can use either or neither. I doubt either have predictive values (or, more to the point, I bet your returns would be the same if you followed either one for a year). There are so many other bits of data that probably have more impact than date/trading day of the month. Even lame stats like the fact that Mondays are historically the worst day of the week for the Naz, and Friday's the best. Or. . . or. . . or. . . . The disparity is interesting, but again, I think the two would even out over time. the freep

To: Murray Grummitt who wrote (45184)	4/1/2002 10:34:39 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Nasdaq Seasonality: Thanks for the detailed study of the two databases. I've completed my own indicator analysis, and unfortunately things don't look a lot clearer than before I did it. Contrarian sentiment indicators are generally neutral, but the leading indicators are a bit confusing. My conclusion: it's ok to increase my exposure from the present 33%, but the outlook is only mildly positive. There are some suggestions in my leading indicators, particularily 3yr Market Expectations, that we could peak, or end a plateau before the end of this month in the broad Market, where I was thinking of adding to my position. I'll be watching the new data carefully. Nasdaq sentiment data is sparse, but it seems as if the Nasdaq could start to outperform the Dow and the S&P in the weeks ahead. I'm going to buy in the next week probably, but only on weakness. I won't chase a rising Market.