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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sylvester80 who wrote (19771)	3/31/2002 10:31:55 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 21876

I said what the carriers will buy in an specific reply to your posting of K. Maney's article. You replied that there will be a market for those boxes by the second half. I am saying that those boxes are not going to be shipped by the container load on the second half 2002.

To: sylvester80 who wrote (19771)	3/31/2002 1:05:22 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

You'll be hearing the opposite when all of a sudden... bang!. I say that bang happens in the second half. I suggest you are being overly optimistic. The big carriers have sales cycles measured in quarters, not weeks. Thus their suppliers are last to feel the pinch and last to recover. It's always been this way. First, the carriers are conservative. And about as fast to move as glaciers. So a decision to unlock capex that hasn't already been made will easily take another 3-6 months to wind its way through to the purchasing department. Next, the suppliers have order, production, installation and turnover lead times that stand between a booked order and revenue recognition - also measured in quarters. Add on another 3-6 months. Best case. So you are talking six to twelve months, best case, before you will see any signs of recovery in this sector. And that's measured from the time that some middle level manager inside the carrier doesn't think he'll be put on the next downsize list for daring to request a budget increase. John