Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (20956)	3/31/2002 12:14:07 PM
From: Jack Bridges	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197051

"Is this 802.11 a solution?" Ramsey, The announcement may simply provide DT with a face-saving retreat as they begin to acknowledge the realities of 1X, including GSM1X. Jack

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (20956)	3/31/2002 7:49:04 PM
From: brational	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 197051

I think it may be more important to watch for the failure of the GSM/GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA path. Ramsey I am well aware of the white paper you linked. You are right in that we do see a somewhat different path, but perhaps only in appearance. While I totally agree that GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA is a much inferior path to the CDMA 2000 path, I do not foresee an open admission of failure by its main proponents. To do so would simply cost too much, globally, and would in a first phase reaction also impact Qualcomm stock price negatively (headlines saying that "carriers are abandoning CDMA for 3G", or worse yet "abandoning 3G" will not help QCOM's valuation). We know that in this business appearances count more than substance. The Vodaphones, Telefonicas, DT's, FT's and so on of the world will just not come out and say we have goofed big time to the tune of 100 Billion Euros. We have been misled by the big vendors who have loaned us these huge sums to build inefficient infrastructure. A more likely scenario, and one towards which we are beginning to see some movement, driven by the carriers themselves, and not the Euro-vendors, would have Qualcomm to the rescue-- as a "partner". It would include: 1. Synchronous W-CDMA, as Qualcomm has been quietly demonstrating with Nortel for Telefonica, and possibly Vodaphone-- i.e. use the highly-prized 3G-designated spectrum, because the at this point no less than the entire economic stability of the EU depends on it, but put something that works in there (and there is no telling exactly what this synchronous W-CDMA might end up being-- could just be boosted 1X, so long as they can call it UMTS...) 2. Working chipsets from QCOM. So far they're the only ones who have succeeded at making these. They can again save the industry's butt. 3. GSM1X is another face-saving exit opportunity. The main idea is get high speed data in the same spectrum, with same GSM core network... call it EDGE if you will... I am convinced there will not be the kind of EDGE that AWE and Voicestream think they're going to deploy, nor will there be handsets for such a mosnter (aptly named fantasyEDGE by Ben Garrett). My main point, Ramsey, is that Qualcomm has recognized that its strategic interest is to align itself with its rivals and bail them out, help desperate carriers preserve a semblance of competence, all at the right price, of course. This would be an implicit victory, to be savored by those in the know. The explicit outright victory would be too costly, for the winners and the losers (why is this sounding more and more like the Middle East conflict?).

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (20956)	4/1/2002 11:14:29 AM
From: David E. Taylor	Respond to of 197051

Ramsey: Now if you add the burden of spectrum TAX that all the carriers paid in Europe, has anyone done a study as to how much data ARPU would be needed to finance the already incurred debt plus cap ex for wcdma built-out? Well, there were these two studies last year on what annual user revenues would be needed in the UK and Germany (the two most expensive sets of 3G licenses) just to pay back the license costs: memia.com memia.com While Memia promised to update these studies to include both the capital costs of network build out and operational costs, they never did (at least not on the "free" portion of their site), and they never responded to my two E-Mails asking them if they had done this. There have also been few detailed articles on the costs of 3G network build out in Euroland, but the few anecdotal reports pegged the costs at least equal to the license costs. So for starters, you can at least double the Memia user fees needed before UK and German carriers begin to make a profit...not a pleasant prospect for them. David T.