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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (45196)	3/31/2002 12:36:53 PM
From: Pierre	Respond to of 99280

I think the "October Massacre" might be early, maybe late September, by October, I think we should bottom out, it all depends on the time table of our activities in Iraq (see #reply-16842549). Zeev: If the current escalation in Israel precludes our putting together a coalition to deal with Iraq, and hence delays our taking action against Sadam for the forseeable future, will that alter your model, or simply moderate the market extremes you anticipate? Pierre

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (45196)	3/31/2002 2:36:08 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev -- I'm re-asking my question of Friday <g> The rally is on target so far, I realize, and it looks like the new highs you were looking for did materialize. But again, the lack of a good bottom has you thinking that 1930ish might be the top (or A top) in this rally. That would clearly imply a re-jiggering to the turnips forecast. Basically, is there anything other than a trip below 1793 that would alter the forecast more strongly? Or do you have to see how the Naz gets to 1930 to re-evaluate? Or do things change if, as da bears maintain, we dip early this week? Or. . . ? Thanks.(And I realize there's no way to answer some of this until trading resumes and you see what happens) the freep

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (45196)	3/31/2002 3:03:07 PM
From: jjstingray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, are we supposed to have a June collapse and a Fall collapse?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (45196)	3/31/2002 6:40:02 PM
From: SOROS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, Do you really think anyone can make a credible argument (fundamentally, technically, historically even) for guessing where the markets will go now -- without at least qualifying it with "barring no more terrorists' attacks, no major mideast war, etc."? Look at the action of the entire world's markets from Sept. 1st -- that's 1st, NOT 11th. EVERY world market has reacted pretty much the same. The charts say, "Everything was very bleak on September 1st. The world was in recession. Business had been getting worse and worse. The markets were way too high -- might even argue a bubble. BUT, thank goodness the terrorists attacked America. Why that one event alone negated all the previous thoughts of bad business or high valuations or recession. That one event reversed and erased all the correction in the markets for the previous many months. Look how the entire world markets have bounced back not just to values pre-9/11, not just values of a few weeks before 9/11, not just a couple of months, but back to values BEFORE we realized (now we say 'thought' because it OBVIOUSLY was not bad at all in April, May, June, July, August, Sept.) anything was wrong. Can you imagine if there had been no attack? Why, the markets might have declined back to levels of "irrational exuberance" in 1996! Could someone PLEASE attack again so our markets could drop a little and then climb back to new highs so everyone can be rich again?" Zeev, tell me the world and its economies are safer, more secure, more predictable, and stronger now than they were last June, July, August! Tell me Pakistan's market should have gone from 1200-1300 to its current 1868; that Taiwan should go from 4000 to 6000; that South Korea should go from 500 to 900; that Sri Lanka should go from 400 to 600; that Russia should go from 2500 to 4200; etc., etc., etc. Is it the Pakistani people buying their market? I have some thoughts on the entire world market system, but I think in due time it will be abundantly clear who is directing the flow. Call me an old geezer, but I say people who point to the drop of Nasdaq 5000 to its present levels and call it a terrible bear are an isolated FEW who are spoiled, selfish, and have NO historical perspective on anything. This "bear" has affected only a MINOR portion of the people. Only when MOST Americans are affected will they understand the ridiculous market climbs of the past few years. These clowns on CNBC would sell their souls for a buck. What they don't see is that they have NO control over what is ultimately going to happen or how badly it will play out. I remain, SOROS p.s. remember when ONE guy steps up with all the answers to wealth and safety, run like hell because that is where he will be from p.p.s. I really would like your answers to the questions about the shape of everything now compared to last mid-to-late summer BEFORE 9/11. Thanks.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (45196)	3/31/2002 8:19:09 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, the first thing that I noticed in the turnips model - Message 16842549 - was the weakness of the nasd vs. the expectation - In January I expect a run to at least 2123 (possibly 2160) and probably within the first two weeks. Absolutely perfect call - however, the nasd top was 2099 on Jan 9. Then a mild decline (no worse than 1960 or so, probable bottom at 2010) lasting most of February. Another perfect call - however, the nasd dropped to 1696, on Feb. 22. That was the target you were looking for in June. Due to such weakness, have your turnips altered their target for the April/May rally? Actually, I think they did, but don't remember what the target is. And, since we already hit your June target for a bottom, I would think we could either have a retest of that low in June, or lower lows. A simple retest could propel us up into that "powerful" July rally that the turnips see. edit - just read your follwing posts - they answered my thoughts -ggg Message 17266660 Message 17266672

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (45196)	3/31/2002 10:39:09 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, I don't think Iraq will happen. There is no Arab support for it. It is just too touchy right now even for the moderates with the US being so active militarily right now. Most are having a hard enough time keeping the lid on the popular support for anything anti-American. When we had the coalition before, it was to support one Arab country against the aggression of Iraq. This time Iraq has attacked no other country, so getting popular support that will be politically necessary for the moderate Arab states is going to be nearly impossible. We also have no allies in Europe behind this. No sane person would try to go this alone. I do not scare easily, and I will continue to travel extensively in the fall. If the US attacks Iraq, I'm pretty certain everything American will be a target. Everything, and it will not be just from Bin Laden. The entire Arab world will probably react, both here and abroad. That said, I think the market will have enough things to react to in the absence of a campaign in Iraq.