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Gold/Mining/Energy : Teton Petroleum (TTPT) -- Russian Oil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Crossy who wrote (14)4/6/2002 12:18:14 PM
From: Ed Ajootian  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 115
 
With the '01 10K about to be issued its now time for my forecast of how they did. I'm gonna call for a 50% increase in revenues for 4Q over 3Q. Granted 3Q had only $400K in revenues so the increase in absolute terms is not that big (i.e., $200K), but nevertheless it shows solid progress in getting to that exalted breakeven cash flow mark.

Loss per share for 4Q should be miniscule (under $.01 per share).

Ballpark initial estimate of 1Q '02 revenues is $800K, a 33% increase over 4Q '01. This estimate will be refined once we get a look at the 10K for '01.

For 2Q '02, depending on: 1) when they can get this next round of wells hooked up; and 2) how well Brent oil prices hold up, we could be looking at breaking the $1 million mark in quarterly revenues for 2Q.

This is a mind-boggling growth rate and once it becomes more visible to folks the stock will appreciate.



To: Crossy who wrote (14)4/21/2002 11:25:20 AM
From: Ed Ajootian  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 115
 
From the Raging Bull TTPT board:

By: csuramfan
21 Apr 2002, 10:34 AM EDT Msg. 164 of 165

Even more publicity, this is great.

I opened my newspaper this morning and on the front page of the Denver Post, the only paper in the Denver area on Sundays, and this article glaring at me. Howard Cooper and starting to get some great ink. Take a look. Notice I said front page of paper not the Business Section. By the way this paper is delivered from New Mexico to Wyoming and everywhere in Colorado so there is some great disperal of news in a large area.

Colorado oilman goes the distance: to Siberia
By Bruce Finley
Denver Post International Affairs Writer

Sunday, April 21, 2002 - For the past five years, oilman Howard Cooper has shuttled between Colorado and Siberia, supervising production from Soviet-era wells that spew seemingly limitless light black crude.
Today Cooper's Siberian venture exemplifies what experts call America's best hope for quenching its 19.6 million-barrel-a-day thirst for oil.

The hunt is on for new non-Mideast foreign suppliers.

But analysts say new sources will prove risky and hard to obtain.

Africa's oilfields off Nigeria and Angola are plagued by government instability and social unrest. Colombia's oil pipelines regularly are attacked by rebel guerrillas. And though Cooper insists "Russians have never been disruptive," Siberian oil has been vulnerable to political uncertainty.

Two decades ago, new non-Mideast foreign oil was more likely to lie "in places you might go on vacation. Not anymore," said Ed Porter, research manager at the American Petroleum Institute in Washington, an industry trade association.

"The places are increasingly challenging."

And that is the challenge America faces today - unless Americans make do with less - amid Mideast turbulence and U.S. congressional rejection of domestic alternatives.

Such was the consensus among leading industry analysts digesting Thursday's defeat of plans to drill in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. This followed Senate rejection a month ago of stricter vehicle fuel-efficiency standards that could reduce consumption.

Also last week, Iranian President Mohammad Khatami renewed a call for Muslim oil producers to halt supplies in protest of Israel's crackdown on Palestinians. Iraq's 30-day embargo continued. Venezuela's strike-plagued supplies, fourth-largest in the world, appeared less than certain as President Hugo Chavez regained power after a failed coup.

All this combined with the threat that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could widen was enough to push oil prices up. On Friday, oil cost $26 a barrel, up 23 percent from $21 at the beginning of March.

"That's not so little, but it's not a crisis," said John Lichtblau, chairman of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, a New York-based think tank.

"The risk is that there might possibly be more oil lost. Iraq is already lost, and that is 1 million barrels a day. Prices could go up and you would probably use the strategic petroleum reserves at a certain point. This could bring somewhat of a slowdown in economic growth."

The likelihood of further supply interruptions is debatable.

"Most of these (Mideast) countries already are spending more than they take in," said Jim Lindsay, the National Security Agency's global issues director under President Clinton, who now runs the Brookings Institution program on terrorism. "If they cut production, they could end up not able to take care of their bills." Saudi Arabia's leaders, he said, "probably don't see it in their interest to wield oil as a weapon."

Today, 26 percent of U.S. oil flows from the Mideast and Venezuela, according to government statistics. About 14 percent comes from the Persian Gulf region.

Overall, U.S. dependence on foreign oil is increasing. In 1973, 34 percent of U.S. oil was imported. In 1990: 42 percent. Today the share is 56.6 percent. The total amount Americans consume has gone up steadily, too - from 17 million to 19.6 million barrels a day. Cars and sport utility vehicles guzzle an estimated 70 percent.

The situation enrages lawmakers who contend that dependence on foreign oil leaves America dangerously vulnerable. U.S. Sen. Ben Campbell, R-Colorado, pointed out that Americans have been using oil from Iraq at a time when U.S. foreign policy was aimed at overthrowing Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

"It bothers the #### out of me," Campbell said. "People don't seem to get the picture about where their money is going - to a guy who may be arming suicide bombers."

Conservationists are uncomfortable, too. They contend reliance on new non-Mideast supplies would only prolong U.S. dependence.

Tapping new foreign oil would let Americans keep using too much, said Shi-Ling Hsu, environmental law professor at George Washington University.

"We can't rely on foreign oil sources of production," Hsu argued. "Siberia? OK. Maybe. But the more we drill for oil now, the more we become dependent on oil by building our cars bigger, and the more severe the price shocks are going to be in the future."

His favored option: a higher gas tax. This would spur development of fuel-efficient cars, he said, so that Americans could reduce consumption.

However, savings from increased fuel-efficiency could take years. A broader embargo could happen quickly. And U.S. emergency reserves, stored under salt domes, are designed to meet demand for only 90 days depending on the supply interruption.

So the hunt begins, focusing first on West Africa, Central Asia and Russia. U.S. companies have had some success, producing about 1.6 million barrels a day of non-Mideast foreign oil in 1999, according to Energy Department statistics.

But according to Porter at the American Petroleum Institute, European and foreign state-owned oil companies are moving more aggressively. Government and industry statistics indicated non-U.S. oil companies increased production of non-Mideast foreign oil by 53 percent between 1987 and 1999, while U.S. companies increased their take by 23 percent since 1990.

Further diversification now is America's "silver bullet," said Tom Niles, president of the New York-based U.S. Council for International Business.

Business leaders call for tax breaks for U.S. oil companies to encourage increased efforts abroad.

Yet in Siberia, Cooper's Teton Petroleum Inc. is succeeding just fine. It's one of a handful of U.S. companies operating in Russia, the world's largest oil producer with among the largest reserves outside the Mideast.

Cooper went in alone at a time when investors considered Russia risky.

The venture grew out of a 7,500-mile, six-month bicycle ride from St. Petersburg to Vladivostok in 1990. The trip took him across the Siberian tundra.

And as he pedaled his silver-and-blue mountain bike, he stared out at seemingly vast oil fields where pumps were still.

He ended up marrying a Russian. He negotiated the purchase of an oil business license. In 1997, he returned to Siberia, rode a barge across the Agan River to an oil field, and turned a valve that promptly produced.

At first Teton trucked oil out of Russia. Now the company has built a 25-mile pipeline that links its fields with the Trans-Siberian pipeline into Western Europe. The amount of oil has increased sixfold to 3,300 barrels a day, said Cooper, 45. And he reckons this would make sense for America.

"Look at who we get our oil from today," he said. "Right now, is Saudi Arabia supportive of us? Or not? What is the most stable producer of oil now? Go down the list.

"Russians now are coming to me on a regular basis with proposals. We could develop an unlimited amount of proven oil. And it would be a reliable, safe source."

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