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Strategies & Market Trends : NetCurrents NTCS -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (8619)	3/31/2002 6:47:57 PM
From: fut_trade	Respond to of 8925

I looking at a potential gain of about $10,000 per year per emini. As a return, I would base it on the value of the underlying contract, which is currently about $60,000...which would suggest a return of about 16%. But what bothers me about the $50 average gain per day, is that the market fluctuates about $750 (15 points) per day. And consider the cost of transaction $6 per RT + $12.50 (0.25 point spread). So any real world difficulties and quickly chop away at that average gain. And if I miss a trade because the market is strong and blows through my stop entry, I miss a trade which most likely would have been a winner. So what I find is that there is not a lot of margin for error in the best trading system I could find. "The problem is that no system can ever predict that whatever signal existed before NOW will persist into the future, or even that the noise will continue unaltered. There is no way to know if the next tick is due primarily to a signal, or just the result of random noise." And I also make the assumption that my system will continue to work...and there is no guarantee in that.