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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Clappy who wrote (49226)4/1/2002 10:11:40 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 65232
 
thanks for COT detail website
only correction: commercials are NOT hedging their physical gold positions
and neither are the silvers

commercials are shorting, simply paper shorting
they no longer are leasing gold from central banks
the gold carry trade is dead and over
lease costs have risen
3-month TBill yields are near zero
gold prices are trending up

now the kicker
in Feb the short silver position open interest was 62,000 contracts
in March it was 68,000 contracts short
no big difference
each contract calls for 5000 oz silver delivery
do the math: short positions are 340 million oz silver

Comex reported world supply at 105 million oz silver last week
I think they are lying, and making it higher deceptively
assume they tell the truth
short positions are more than 3x the world supply
i.e. short squeeze coming
Comex collusion, Fed encouragement
but now bullion bankers like Goldman Sachs are going long gold
Goldman came out last week reco long Newmont (NEM)

Soros founded Apex Silver (SIL)
he alone has the money necessary to push a silver corner
/ jim



To: Clappy who wrote (49226)4/1/2002 10:30:27 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
been eating bananas for almost 15 years
finally they have worked their way into the DNA genetic structures
apparently that effect, combined with living in a former steel town, has transformed me into a precious metal devotee

I truly believe a financial upheaval is coming
as the USDollar slips, gold & silver will take off
another 10-20% move in the physical will break the back of the Gold Cartel
and force a short cover rally that captures world attention

something unexpected will happen to lead buyers into gold
something unexpected will result
my guess is several silver defaults
and reports from the likes of Kodak or the USMint that silver supplies are totally unavailable
guys like George Soros, institutions like China, and clandestine groups like Islamics have the power to push the issue

Soros could buy above ground silver supplies
China could discontinue all silver sales (already doing so)
Islamics could push forward on their Dirhan silver and gold coin minting

you cannot short silver 3x the world supply
you cannot hold down a strategic metal of importance
you cannot suppress the price to the point where 70% of silver mines are shut down
you cannot lead the public to believe the downtrend is forever

free markets find a way to force the issue
it will be forced
just watch, but give it time
/ jim