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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (33519)	4/2/2002 12:55:19 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

>> what do those baby boomers do when they start retiring<< Well, the chart I posted before seems to imply they consume at a lower rate and don't buy as many toys thus making consumer cyclicals the better plays over gizmo companys. Here is what Greenspan had to say about it also in his speech a couple weeks ago on March 14th..... ....Most economic forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty. At least by comparison, one judgment looks to be a reasonably sure proposition: The ratio of retirees to those still working will rise precipitously starting at the end of this decade and will continue to climb through the first third of this century and remain high thereafter. In part, this projected development owes to the retirement of the baby boomers. But the phenomenon is broader than that and reflects the aging of our society. Importantly, according to the social security trustees, the demographic challenge will not go away with the passing of the baby-boom generation. This ever-larger retired population will have to be fed, clothed, housed, and serviced by a workforce growing far less rapidly. The retirees may have accumulated a large stock of retirement savings, but the goods and services needed to redeem those savings must be produced by an active workforce assisted by a stock of plant and equipment sufficiently productive to meet the needs both of retirees and of a workforce expecting an ever-increasing standard of living. ....... ........Over the past decade, for example, immigration accounted for approximately one-third of the increase in our workforce. The larger our workforce in 2010 and beyond, the easier producing goods and services for both retirees and active workers will be. Immigration policy will, therefore, be a key component of baby-boom retirement policy. The rate of saving--for retirement and other purposes--may not directly affect either the number of retirees or the size of the workforce. But it surely affects capital investment, which it finances, and the productivity that it engenders. ........... federalreserve.gov Good Luck, Lee