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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (2557)	4/1/2002 3:48:12 PM
From: cordob	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95656

Thks Gottfried. There is a difference however, SIA is about semiconductors and SEMI is about semiconductor equipment. I have that data you referred to and I like raw data wherever I can get it (can probably deduce from the 3 monthly what it is). I can do my own averaging:) see also boards.fool.com I have looked at these figures and reduced them to trend and seasonals etc etc (sort of number churning I used to do in the 60s for a living:) Interesting is that imo the deepest point of the trend occurred in october last year and that we are since on an uptrend in semiconductor billings. The numbers are: month billings trend season; month-to-month trend aug01 9293 9986 -7% -1.5% sep01 12500 10608 +18% +6.2% oct01 9524 9512 +0% -10.3% nov01 9788 9496 +3% - 0.2% dec01 11226 9661 +16% + 1.7% jan02 9014 10032 -10% +3.8% feb02 10100 10931 - 8% +9.0% These analyses from me are provisional in that I have only used figures since 1998 to determine the seasonal pattern; I will improve on this but have to type in all the data first. With some good will:) one can conclude the figures are climbing out of the abyss at an accelerating pace:). On the basis of these figures alone, and with some optimism, for march02 a plus 5% growth of trend (average of last 3 months given) and a seasonal of +14% would give for march 13104, so for the quarter 34067. That is(I mean would be) q-on-q growth of 11.5% and yr-on-yr growth for the qtr of -21% (vs.y-on-y for the previous qtr of -43%. Cheers Cor