3/30/2002
Full-scale war, oil embargo unlikely
By KEN MORITSUGU and JONATHAN S. LANDAY
Knight Ridder Newspapers
WASHINGTON - In scattered protests and official statements, the Arab world condemned Israel's attack on Palestinian President Yasser Arafat's compound yesterday, but the chance of a large-scale Arab-Israeli conflict remains remote, Middle East experts said.
The leaders of Morocco and Lebanon called the Israeli move, in which troops and tanks demolished walls and clashed with Arafat's forces, an attack on this week's Arab peace proposal.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher described the action as "a message of war and aggression against Arabs."
Protesters took to the streets after yesterday's prayers in Cairo and Yemen and clashed with police in a Palestinian refugee camp in Jordan.
Expanding protests could put pressure on Arab governments to confront Israel, but realistically, they have little choice. Few, if any, want to take on the powerful Israeli military, which is armed with nuclear weapons.
The Arabs' other weapon is oil, but a repeat of the 1973-74 embargo is unlikely, because their economies depend so heavily on oil revenues. Some Arab leaders are ambivalent about the Palestinian cause, and many value their ties to the United States as much as or more than their ties to the Palestinians, although not publicly.
"I would expect to hear lots of rhetoric," said professor Bernard Reich, a Middle East expert at The George Washington University in Washington, D.C. "Maybe some checks will be written (to Palestinian groups). But beyond the wringing of hands . . . and calls for the United States to do something, I would anticipate nothing to happen."
Experts said the conflict could broaden along Israel's border with Syria or Lebanon. Either nation could become embroiled should Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese guerrilla group, attempt to open up a second front against Israel with attacks across Israel's northern border.
But Reich played down such a scenario, saying Hezbollah has staged only one cross-border attack into Israel in recent months.
Furthermore, he said, Syrian leader Bashar al Assad still is striving to consolidate his grip on power nearly two years after the death of his father, Hafez al Assad. He would not want to provoke Israeli military retribution, which could undermine his position.
Other nations, such as Saudi Arabia, can ill afford a war that could create economic and social turbulence and threaten the stability of their regimes.
Egypt and Jordan, the only Arab nations besides Mauritania that have peace accords with Israel, would risk losing billions of dollars in U.S. aid, tourism and military sales if they were to take aggressive action against Israel on behalf of the Palestinians.
"Jordan and Egypt are probably more worried about 435 congressmen than they are about the Palestinians," Reich said. "U.S. aid, U.S. tourism and U.S. military sales to both countries, especially Egypt, are critical. They are both poor countries."
Iraq is too far from Israel to pose a major threat, and any attempt to launch missiles at the Jewish state - as Saddam Hussein did during the Persian Gulf War - would almost certainly trigger military retaliation from the Bush administration, which is already seeking ways to oust Saddam.
Experts all but ruled out another oil embargo, though one energy economist said the oil-producing Arab nations could curb output enough to drive the price of crude oil to $40 to $50 a barrel, from about $25 a barrel today. A barrel is 42 gallons.
"I would not be surprised to see them discussing a substantial reduction in oil exports out of the Middle East to get everybody's attention and to say, 'We have some clout, too,'" said Phil Verleger, an independent California-based consultant who frequently advises Congress on energy issues.
But the obstacles to such a move are considerable. Many of the Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, depend heavily on oil revenues to finance their government budgets and on the oil industry to generate jobs for their populations.
A sustained embargo could push oil prices so high that it would drive the world's economy into recession, but oil producers would suffer, too. Also, it risks aligning the world against the Palestinians instead of forcing a resolution to the problem.
"You may be able to take out your frustrations on other people, but you make things worse for the Palestinians and for yourselves," said James Placke, a former State Department Mideast official and a senior associate at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy consulting firm.
Ron Dior |
