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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trumptown who wrote (45575)	4/2/2002 7:35:27 AM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 99280

VIX is best viewed as intermediate term measure, it is not a good day trade measure .But it is an excellent indicator of an impending major sell-off. It has only had one major failure in the last 5 years and that was in the last week of November 1999(and i actually went long in the 1st week of December,1999 when i realized the failure of the VIX at that point actually signalled BULLFRENZY)--and that failure actually signalled that one of the biggest sell-offs in history was to commence come the last days of march 2000) I see the key signal now is when the VIX 10mda moves above it's 20mda as that crossing would show real fear is then entering the market. BTW,speaking of 2000 i like to reflect on my decision to go to all cash and sell all on the morning of 4/5/2000. i feel everybody should have gotten the message at the close of the day 4/4/2000.Max P.S.(and this is important.)<<If so, what happens to the market when the VIX turns up again? Wouldn't that be a great set-up for an explosive rally?>> as one expert in VIX says, to follow the rule to sell at 20 and buy at 30 is an INVITATION to GET KILLED. A VIX turning upward can mean a LOT of hell is ahead, that is why one need study VIX on levels having nothing to do with it's specific number.A VIX beginning to turn up can well be a signal to sell like hell.And that is why i am now watching it's 10mda and 20mda, a crossing would be a sell like hell signal.