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To: Les H who wrote (1713)	4/2/2002 2:21:47 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29595

What to expect now. April 1, 2002. Ord. If one takes a look at a 200 moving average of the VIX and then does a 25% displacement on either side of the 200 ma. You will see when it crossed below the lower band it correctly called for an intermediate term top going back several years. The last three days (not counting today) the VIX was below the 25% lower band and implies the S&P were at an intermediate term top. We like to trade with the direction of the Summation Index and right now, this index is pointing down. For mutual fund purposes, we are short the SPX from Friday's close at 1147.39. The next cycle low is due in the end of April. The very short-term picture is up in the air and a minor bounce could take hold but we do not expect it go anywhere. At most there could be a bounce to test last Thursday's high near the 1155 level. The next several weeks in general should be down. We are short the SPX at 1147.39 for an intermediate term trade. The "VIXN 200 day moving average with a displacement of 25%" tells a similar story for the Nasdaq. Right now the VIXN is below the lower 25% boundary line and implies extreme complacency and a very bearish sign. The "Summation Index" on the NDX is trending down and implies the trend is down. The "ARMS Index" Closed today at .42 and implies and "Exhaustion Move" to the upside is occurring. There are two gaps left open above current levels on the NDX. One near 1500 and one near 1540. To keep the bearish scenario, the NDX should not close the gaps. In other words today's bounce should not rally much past 1490. We are short the QQQ at 36.80 with a stop at 37.60. We added to our QQQ short position today at our 3:30 Eastern update at 36.70 and we now hold a full position short and our stop will remain at 37.60. Our average short QQQ position is now at 36.725. The XAU had a very strong move to the upside recently and foretells great things to come on gold stocks. The Weekly and months charts on the XAU remain bullish. The monthly charts imply Gold is in a powerful "wave 3" up in Elliott Wave terms and therefore, pull back or not the bigger picture is very bullish. We liked ASA near 23, and today closed at 29.18. We liked HL near the level 1.40 area (were near or below that level for a month), closed today at 2.24. We liked Drooy near 2.05 to 2.15 and 2.21 was the lowest seen for the last several weeks, closed today at 3.71. Drooy has resistance near 4.00 and could consolidate near this level for a while. Longer term, we expect Drooy to go much higher. We like AEM near 11 to 10.50 and the recent low was 11.25, closed today at 13.48. marketweb.com