Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (2594)	4/3/2002 7:41:21 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95622

Hard to envision that scenario, when high frequency data suggests this recovery is coming faster than anticipated. Q4 was supposed to be the second down quarter that proved we were in recession.It then morphed into a breakeven - then up 1.4 and settled out with a final of 1.7 positive growth. During all that growth inventories continued to decline.Just rebuilding the reduced inventory levels of autos will add 1.0 - 1.5 % on top of Q2 GDP. Some estimate Q1 GDP to be in 4-5 percent range and Q2 is already scheduled to be stronger. Semi's in past cycles have JUMPED out of trough values not on earnings but on BACKLOG GROWTH. Next step up of consolidation WILL require Earnings for those few that are in tech sweet spot. I just don't see a historical scenario from the past that suggests : MM selling semi equip at the start of a recovery. This Recovery is cooked in the books - it is and will continue. The fear in your scenario is based on an unsupportable future event occurring. Fear mongering is the art of a scared short. Or am I missing some substance in your scenario other than your opinion? Just the facts Orc - just some facts PUULLLEASE !! Bob