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Pastimes : Thoroughbred Horse Racing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 249443 who wrote (130)	4/5/2002 9:41:08 AM
From: Ralph W.	Respond to of 1269

Hi,mrc. My approach this year will be just as it was in 1999, which was one of those instances where it all worked to perfection. First of all, I ran my own variants in the prep races. Beyer figures are generally pretty good, but now and again they differ significantly from my own ratings. Charismatic came up with a very good figure. In his last race (or one very proximate to the Derby) he either beat or produced a figure superior to a colt on the same card that next time out authenticated Charismatic's race. So here I utilized the horse vs. horse angle as a verification. The fact that he had once run for a tag didn't bother me since we all know that any horse, and maybe in particular young ones, can improve dramatically in a short time. And so in the Derby I felt he was a definite play. The huge cushion was the great odds on him. Playing him in the Preakness was a lot easier. Beat 'em once, beat 'em again. And 8-1, as I recall, was another nice cushion. Bettors have a habit of not believing what they saw in a previous race. The believed him by the time the Belmont rolled around, only to make him first or second choice (if memory serves correctly) and I passed him on flat bets. He ran a great race despite breaking down. In sum, that's it. R