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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (49448)	4/3/2002 4:35:05 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 65232

Iraq oil cutoff would cause a stir, for sure but Saudi and a couple neighbors promised to make up any shortfall if USA is denied Iraqi oil Saudi has big big excess capacity something like 3 million barrels per day Saudi neighbors include Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain they are friendly coastal neighbors but if Iraq and Iran combined to embargo, we are in trouble I dont mean to minimize the threat just that OPEC exports half of what it used to in mktshare that represents a big change as for Russia, these guys cause me discomfort, dyspepsia, and sometimes diarrhea they have vast oil reserves, but poor delivery means we have been talking and talking about pipelines for years the Caspian Sea has as much oil as Saudi, huge but again, how to get it? how to deliver it? I think Russia is sooner or later gonna square off against Saudi they may not embark upon a price war, flooding world with oil because the depletion issue is too clear Russia can make up some shortfall, if USA is denied I maintain that crude oil is priced absurdly simple supply & demand is totally anachronistic, outdated, mindless, out of touch with reality the cost structure does not allow for depletion concerns it does not allow for war risk premium from interruptions the size of our Strategic Oil Reserve is a total joke Iraq could do us big damage but they would damage themselves worse I expect they will continue to ship oil to US ports, even as we attack their capital with Cruise Missiles / jim