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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Grommit who wrote (14237)	4/3/2002 8:22:17 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78729

Grommit, you ask what I'm doing... right now I am crying. Giving up lots of profits in my long time holding of BMY. I should have followed Jim Clarke (or Jim Clarke's mother) and sold when he posted here last year he/she was selling @ $55. (Bristol Myers is about $32 in after hours trading now.) Since BMY is an outsize position in one of my portfolios, it's going to take me some time to recover there. OTOH, some of the stocks you mention in your post, I have too, and they are doing very well. Homebuilders in particular. I notice now I made my first buy of RYL in late '96: 1500 sh. @ $11.75. (Closed today about $93.) I still have some. Too bad I bought and sold and bought - but mostly sold most on the way up. Can't remember when I made my last sale, and I don't even want to look further. It just makes my day even worse. lol. Believe I'll just log off, and go out and walk around the block. Paul S.

To: Grommit who wrote (14237)	4/4/2002 10:29:51 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78729

Grommit, >I am wondering if anyone also saw merit in my other >buys this year...APCC 2/6 I still hold APCC and also hold everything else I had before: ANF, ELY, EMC, INTC, JNY, NAUT + mutual funds. Jurgis

To: Grommit who wrote (14237)	4/4/2002 12:13:27 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78729

Grommit, my comments on some of the stocks you mentioned: WM: I'm trying to buy more. I missed getting the price I wanted this a.m., so I'll wait a bit. (If there are 3 of us on the thread who've made a WM buy this year, I add WM to the 2002 thread list.) I still have ABS and SWY. Sorry to say I only started an exploratory position in SWY when it was lower. I'm holding other grocery stocks as well, and now I'm also considering making an initial purchase in KR. Housing: True, there have been some very good moves in the housing stocks. (multiyear highs) I suspect the conventional wisdom exists that housing is cyclical (and we're at the top). We see the housing price increases and media reports of big demand (which some say are indicative of a top or at least unsustainable). These "facts" all put pressure on us investors to at least take some profits now. I am trying to keep myself focused on the financials of the companies and the reported profits and the expectations these companies report, because I am trying very hard to resist selling. There is still room for upmoves, imo. (Insider selling that you notice is either normal for these executives now, or else there IS something they know - like getting out while the getting is good -g- - that we should be alert too. I choose, for now, to say it's normal selling.) I've not sold any shares of any of my housing stocks (stick builders) within the past 12 months (if I can remember correctly). AMN: I have owned AMN for sometime before your purchase. AMN has bounced around between 60 and 70 (very roughly) for the past year. At mid to low '60's I considered adding more, but decided against it. Still, I expect the company to do to well over the next year or so, so I am holding the stock I do have. APCC. I read where several professional value investors have purchased this. And in past, there's been some favorable comment on this thread too. I went to FRY's to look at surge protectors, and I was amazed to see so many different brands. That discouraged me from APCC, even though I suspect APCC might (?) be dominant in other market segments. Given what I see now in Yahoo, p/e 23, p/b >2, p/s >1.8, not only will I pass on the stock, I will call it 'shockingly' expensive -g-. SGR: Really nice move in that stock in past month. I looked at it near lows, but got scared away with media reports saying electricity costs may come down because so many power plants are coming on line; the media reported it might be very possible there's going to be an excess of such plants. (So SGR, which designs the things, would lose business and the stock would remain very depressed - I wrongly guessed.) Paul S., who... is likely to be wrong about other opinions he expressed here.

To: Grommit who wrote (14237)	6/24/2002 4:42:39 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78729

Grommit, Wallace Rivers, other KR posters/holders: fwiw, I've added just a little more KR to my tiny position today. Looks like KR is now at 11x '02 consensus earnings estimates. That's historically relatively low, and makes KR a reasonable bet for me -- IF I assume the estimates won't be cut and those earnings do come in as estimated. I've seen an article quoting a money manager who says KR has the number 1 or 2 market share in 41 of its 48 markets. Still, Wal-Mart is the cloud that hangs over the companies in this sector. Paul Senior