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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (46623)	4/3/2002 7:51:41 PM
From: furrfu	Respond to of 99280

DCB rally before the decline, start of the Spring Rally, or just more wishy washy nonsense that can only lead us lower in the long run. I vote for the latter. I'm not sure what distinction you're making between the DCB and the wishy washy cacadina (WWC) before the decline. My money's riding on the WWC taking at least partly the form of a DCB. Are you thinking something other than directionless wandering? Doug

To: mishedlo who wrote (46623)	4/3/2002 7:52:39 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Mish: Trin trend has changed and is moving up toward 1.50 again which is the bear call to arms: stockcharts.com[w,a]dallniay[dc][pb10!b05][vc60]&pref=G

To: mishedlo who wrote (46623)	4/3/2002 7:53:30 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 99280

Mish, today's (and probably next week's) decline makes it much more likely we'll get Max Pain again this month. They needed to take it down below 36. Since we'll be well below 36 now, we don't really need to go over it before expiration. If we get a low on Monday or Tuesday of next week, we'll have about seven trading days to get up and in place for Max Pain. Completely do-able. If we go above and dip back, that's fine. Frankly, I think we may rise up to meet Max Pain, re-trace, and meet it again. We'll see how this works out. I really liked the paint job into the close. MSFT closing at exactly 66.33 made me crack up (perfect .618 re-trace).

To: mishedlo who wrote (46623)	4/3/2002 7:54:16 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

A pissy last minute rally is supposed to get me to want to buy when the institutions were unloading all day. Phooey. Then again, at least I stayed away from the "Spring Rally" massacre. SEBL MSFT INTC BRCM and a host of other big losers. Actually, based on the close, a continued rally seems more likely than not, but with this TRIN, I aint playing for it. DCB rally before the decline, start of the Spring Rally, or just more wishy washy nonsense that can only lead us lower in the long run. I vote for the latter Mish, I think they will take it up prior to expiration. The Dell news may not seem like a big deal but it does confirm what MU stated in their conference call that they got lots of orders in March, especially memory required for server type of hardware. WDC also preannounced strong sales/eps because of demand for PC disk drives. It may be enough to stop the selling and possibly lead to some buying and short covering into the actual earnings report due in the next 2 weeks. The Nasdaq market looks nasty in every way, including fundmentals...too much reliance on a major pick up on IT spending to justify valuations. Still, it should be able to get a bounce (not a major rally) to about 1880. Look for Intel, semi equipment and maybe even Cisco to lead some of the charge; MSFT looks dead. Short interest did go up significantly in march and maybe that will help get the QQQ to max pain. However, the external factors (middle east) could mess it up if the news gets any worse than it is. I am betting on a bounce because this 1790 level probably forced too many TA people to sell and possibly short..and therefore see it as a reason to increase long exposure. Tough market...and i can understand your desire to sit on the sidelines for now. jmho btw--nasdaq futures (1.5) look very strong right now 15.5 points above fair value. money.cnn.com