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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (36660)	4/4/2002 4:55:53 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 67879

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Updated: 04-Apr-02 General Commentary The markets continue to lack positive catalysts of any immediacy. Wednesday morning, the ISM Services Index (Institute for Supply Management) edged down to 57.3% in March from 58.7% in February. If that doesn't sound very exciting it's because it isn't. The slight decline came off a very strong February reading and was more or less in line with consensus expectations. The net result was another session in which traders had little incentive to stake out new positions. After the close, Dell Computer (DELL) reaffirmed its first quarter earnings projection and also guided revenues slightly higher. The late session reaction was favorable though not overwhelmingly so. From a technical perspective, the very near-term picture continues to deteriorate. The Nasdaq failed to hold notable support at 1800 and also finished the session towards its worst levels of the day. It's also worth noting that both the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and the Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) cleared their 20-day exponential moving averages on Wednesday. These indices are inversely correlated with the equity markets and serve as a measure of market uncertainty (more typically referred to as fear). Their respective breaks above their 20-day exponential moving averages indicates they should have room to head higher -- the implication being that the equity markets also have room to head lower. At current levels, the Nasdaq is solidly under its major moving averages and has also failed to hold the lower end of its 10 and 20-day Bollinger bands. To the downside, look for initial Nasdaq support at chart congestion around 1779/1782 followed by an additional floor at 1769. If those two areas fail to hold, look for subsequent support at 1745/1751. If the index should manage a move higher, watch for notable resistance at 1800 followed by an additional ceiling in the area of 1818/1822. Note that this technical assessment is centered on a relatively short time frame. We continue to be bullish on the markets' intermediate-term outlook as both economic and corporate data points show slow but steady improvement. On Thursday, there isn't much on the docket in terms of economic reports. This week's headline number is the March Employment Report which is set for release Friday morning. Economists are looking for non-farm payrolls to increase by 50,000 and project the March unemployment rate at 5.6%. Aside from the employment report, traders should continue to expect the unexpected. Put another way, look for earnings pre-announcements and any further developments on the political front to disproportionately impact the near-term market direction. Michael Ashbaugh-- Please feel free to direct comments to mashbaugh@briefing.com

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (36660)	4/4/2002 1:28:19 PM
From: Frederick Langford	Respond to of 67879

Need to add BBBY to your list. They beat by .02 and raised guidance. Fred

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (36660)	4/5/2002 12:00:33 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 67879

Running list stocks confirming/upping guidance April 4,2002 MCHP NXTL ANAD ANEN RMTR TTWO RCL UCL ELBO * TREE EK ITRI SMRT TSA CYMI PNR GM GE INSP CD ESST UAG EMN ROH TSG KEM PG CKFR CLX TKR DL TRB JILL FO TIBX EXEL ALLY STN UAG EMN JBL IDTI SHW MVIS BYD GE FINL PFE GGC CBRL WTSLA BOL YELL TWR LBRT MANU DCN EMMS DCTM BOL WDF HRV BHE MONE WDC DELL RTN* DD JNY SKX PFCB WEBM HLYW DHI SWK SY BBBY STR WBSN MMM CHPC FTS DELL MWRK CPKI CRUS BRCD INRG SBAC GNSS * ELBO sold off despite beating numbers for earnings JBL reducing rev for next 2 Q's, ups EPS due to better tax rate, ups rev and EPS for year, large new contracts 2H * Appears to raise 2003 rev guidance, miss of 2004 though