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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RIK who wrote (8818)	6/28/2002 1:53:25 AM
From: Richard Saunders	Respond to of 24925

Help please - gas question. Linepack. Not sure if any have been watching some of the substantial moves recently in the AECO-C spot price. Thursday's closing price was C$2.299/mcf. The day previous AECO-C closed at C$1.614/mcf. Heading into June the 2Q average price was $4.406 and for the first couple of weeks in June the price was in the general $3.30 to $3.70 price band. More recently the prices have made some significant moves and there has supposedly been some challenges trying to get gas out of Alberta. Supposedly the TransCanada Pipeline mainline has been having some maintenance done and as a result the linepack has had some significant changes vs. the 13.98 Bcf target. I'm assuming that Cdn. producers that are using the AECO-C spot price for sales revenue reference may be noticing some changes compared to what they were seeing earlier in the 2Q. As well, any producers who have been using the $U.S. for reference pricing will also be feeling a bit of a pinch with recent strength in the Canadian dollar. Here's what I mean re: the recently volatile closing AECO-C spot prices: 2Q 2002 to May 31 AECO-C avg. $4.406 31-May-02 $3.322 01-Jun-02 02-Jun-02 03-Jun-02 $3.470 04-Jun-02 $3.670 05-Jun-02 $3.607 06-Jun-02 $3.459 07-Jun-02 $3.406 08-Jun-02 09-Jun-02 10-Jun-02 $3.512 11-Jun-02 $3.617 12-Jun-02 $3.501 13-Jun-02 $3.365 14-Jun-02 $3.354 15-Jun-02 16-Jun-02 17-Jun-02 $3.006 18-Jun-02 $2.689 19-Jun-02 $3.375 20-Jun-02 $3.217 21-Jun-02 $2.637 22-Jun-02 23-Jun-02 24-Jun-02 $3.343 25-Jun-02 $2.953 26-Jun-02 $1.614 27-Jun-02 $2.299 The question(s)...... Can someone give me a general run down on possible reference sites to watch that may give early indications re: the AECO-C spot price and linepack issues? Also, can someone explain in simple lay person terms what/why linepack is important for gas producers? The simple answer I'm assuming is that unless producers can get sales gas receipted there will be no cashflow occuring. Here's a link to the TransCanada site that details current Alberta conditions. transcanada.com I also notice a similar situation happened last September. transcanada.com Cut-n-paste of the current Alberta conditions are below. If anyone can give the Coles-notes translation please do so. It would be greatly appreciated and helpful too. Current System at: Jun 27, 2002 22:30:03 MST Parameter Value - SI Units - SI Value - Imp. Units - Imp. Alberta Linepack Current 393800 e3m3 13978 MMCF Alberta Linepack 4Hour ROC 11393 e3m3 404 MMCF Alberta - Field Receipts 329918 e3m3/d 11710 MMCF/d Alberta - Intra-Delivery Flow w/o Storage 28407 e3m3/d 1008 MMCF/d Alberta - Flow Differential (Receipts - Deliveries) 16369 e3m3/d 581 MMCF/d Alberta - Instantaneous Delivery Flow 313678 e3m3/d 11134 MMCF/d Alberta - Receipt Flow 329918 e3m3/d 11710 MMCF/d Alberta - Net Storage Flow (Receipts - Deliveries) -10728 e3m3/d -381 MMCF/d Empress Border - Flow 159566 e3m3/d 5664 MMCF/d McNeil Border - Flow 63780 e3m3/d 2264 MMCF/d Alberta / BC Border - Flow 46727 e3m3/d 1659 MMCF/d Gordondale Border - Delivery Flow 0 e3m3/d 0 MMCF/d Gordondale Border - Receipt Flow 1421 e3m3/d 50 MMCF/d