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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (21143)	4/4/2002 5:57:36 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 196649

L. << EL - Of course they can't see it. You would have to know how bad GPRS is and how good 1X is >> I would like you to explain to me "how bad GPRS is", and "how good 1X is", based on your personal experience with both. I subscribe both Verizon and VoiceStream, but I don't have a 1X handset or a GPRS handset. I suspect I will have both by this time next year but for the moment I have a 1 year old cdmaOne tri-mode smartphone with EVR codec, and a 4+ year old GSM dual-band worldphone with EFR. I can't myself really comment on 1xRTT because although "Express Network" is available here, it's not very available (feature or selection wise) and its not (for me) justifiable. I mean GPRS was late but now 1xRTT is late, and analysts can get as frustrated with that as you or I. ... but I have had a Verizon in-store demo of the Kyocera KWC 2235 (as a phone & as a modem) and the Mobile Office Kit for Express Network. At $79.99 (without the kit) it is a fine value for someone shopping low-end but it really is just a low end voice phone with 2-way SMS & WAP Crap. ... I also had a Verizon in-store demo of the $299.99 Sierra Wireless Aircard. It's a fine value for someone who can justify spending $150 a month on top of a separate voice subscription for 150 MB of data. In my personal case, I would guess that when travelling I replicate over 100 MB a month in an average month and perhaps up to 200 MB in a heavy travel month. I've had not a lot, but a bit more hands-on experience with GPRS. My "in-industry" golf-mate, is beta-testing a tri-mode 4=2 GPRS modem for the manufacturer and also beta-testing 2 different client based data-compression/optimization utilities they have supplied. He's brought it over twice for testing in my laptop. Results are rather impressive without the compression software and very surprising with it, particularly since I'm in a fringe VoiceStream area. Last weekend we zipped 20 miles up I-95 for a tee-time and I played with his new tri-mode Ericsson T-68i just purchased in Europe the whole way using real "always on", "i-stream" WAP, which beats the heck out of Verizon's WAP crap. Now I realize that's not a lot of data, but I sure am looking forward to your personal experiences that justify saying "how bad GPRS is", and "how good 1X is". Ya know, it's like sales, it's like sports, ... never underestimate the competition. What sucked last season might not suck quite as much as you think now. << And another thing, PJ seems to have overlooked that EV DO upgrades are planned for next year ... >> Well, since we don't have any real insight into when, and to what extent they will take place, perhaps that is sensible. Remember, even the Korean carriers, who have a much better conditioned wireless data market for DO are not forecasting big DO numbers for this year. Feel free to be as aggressive in your thinking as you would like to be. I'll stick to being relatively conservative as regards "next-generation" wireless takeup in the USA and replacement sales driven by same, regardless of the technology deployed. << Also I noticed a previously unheard of type of fancy handset due for release in Korea in the fall and targeted at the business community. >> Perhaps you are talking about the DO "Ultra Videophone" with enhanced display and large memory that SKT plans to offer subscribers in August. Remember what PJ is looking at: problems in 2003 and 2004, with slow ... 1xRTT adoption in the US offsetting strength in Japan and South Korea. Now people in the US are going to buy 1xRTT handsets in 2003 and 2004, because that's what the shelves will be stocked with ... but they may not be high ASP phones with features that enable a subscriber to take real advantage of new data features, and replacement rates may increase slower than some are anticipating. This is not Japan or South Korea ... ... but who knows, maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised. The barometer will be my wife. If she needs a new phone because of a data service she can't live without, then always on, 1xRTT data has truly been accepted in the US ... and if SI poster and laggard Mike Buckley buys a data enabled 1xRTT phone (hell, any phone) then watch out, sectors in hypergrowth again. Best, - Eric -