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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (47233)	4/4/2002 8:27:46 PM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

aj99 watch out what you write "I now believe we stand a very good chance of taking out the Sept. lows by the end of June." Why ? Because breaking the Sep 21 , 2001 low would be the "FIRST TIME SINCE NASDAQ STARTED" that a "MAJOR LOWER LOW" was created. Larry Dudash

To: ajtj99 who wrote (47233)	4/4/2002 8:59:37 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

AJ: Re: "I now believe we stand a very good chance of taking out the Sept. lows by the end of June. I think COMP 1340 is the next level of support below the Sept. lows, if memory serves. We aren't supposed to get new lows in June." LOL. I have been calling for new lows in this market by end of June since December. I am less confident about the Dow in the June timeframe. I think the SPX and Nasdaq could hit then on a spike down. New lows in June are perfectly consistent with prior bear markets. And this is the mother of all bears. The nine month cycle low is in late June and the four year cycle low should hit in September- October unless they morph. Look, the QQQs (NDX) is within 6% of last April's low with about 46% less volatility as measured by the Vix. We are trading today where we were the day before 9/11 in the QQQs with the Vix in the mid to upper thirties then. Here we are at Vix 22. Is anyone going to tell me if when see that kind of volatility again that we will not see new lows in the NDX? Nasdaq should follow. Re: "That sounds crazy, but there is an incredible amount of weakness now. I think Zeev's 1296 or could come into play in October." LOL. No, it does not seem crazy at all to me. We could see 1296 or whatever before end of June for all I know. Re: "Looking at the charts tonight, I believe that due to seasonal considerations and severe technical damage in the charts, we may not see any bullish moves over the next 6-months other than a bounce." As I have maintained for some time, I think we can get a rally from lower levels to a lower high. Never bought the 1793 bottom. Not sure where the bottom might be on this trip down. I don't think we are there yet and that is all I have to know. I am on the look out for the rally and hope it does not grab me by the shorts. Max pain may be the scenario that gets us to rally. After that, who knows at this point.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (47233)	4/4/2002 9:48:54 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

In the meantime, we have Max Pain ready to lift us up off the lows here if we need help. We just don't know where those lows will be over the next day or two or three. I am hoping some faer is shown next week. Nice three day selloff down to QQQ 33. Then we can rally back up to QQQ 38 perhaps and that will be that for the "Spring Rally". Actually I doubt we can get to QQQ 38 and I am not sure about the decline to QQQ 33 either. I think 33 would roughly correlate to Zeev's new bounce point. Do you have a better figure? M