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To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (6874)4/4/2002 8:41:32 PM
From: Dayuhan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 21057
 
Get rid of them to stop the violence. That could trigger that regional war.

The obstacle I see to the regional war is that the Arabs just aren't in a position to fight it. Syria can't do it alone. Iraq won't be of much use: they have no air force, and by the time they could get an army over there it would be sliced up by US and Israeli air power. The US would just love to have Saddam round up all his armor and artillery and put it out on the road where it can be easily targeted. I expect that whatever Saddam has left is going to stay very carefully hidden, against the day when he needs it.

Iran is just too far away. Egypt? The Saudis? I doubt it.

If Israel pulls anything really extreme, I would expect a reaction on the lines of shutting off the oil, not a military response. Possibly terrorist actions directed at the US. Everybody knows that we have a fair amount of control over the Israelis, since we underwrite a good bit of their budget. That is also a factor that would induce the leaders to resist the clamor of the populace for drastic action: they know the US won't have it, and they know they can't survive without US aid.

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I wonder if the recent suicide bombings were aimed at provoking an Israeli response that would obstruct any further US moves against Arab nations? It is much harder for the US to negotiate for basing rights when the Israeli/Palestinian mess is frothing.