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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: StanX Long who wrote (62727)4/4/2002 10:30:55 PM
From: Gottfried  Respond to of 70976
 
Stan, it still shows AMAT outperforming SOX. Since it's the ratio AMAT/SOX I'm not sure we can use the indicators shown.

Here's a chart from Bollinger's site showing seasonal influences on two indices [gleaned from 19 years of data]
Thanks to Didi Message 17288161

Using data from 1979 through 1997, a span of 19 years, we calculated an annual seasonal index for the stock market. For each of the 19 years we indexed the S&P 500 to 100 on the first day of trading. We then combined the resultant indices to produce a composite index for the 19 years anchored on the first trading day of the year. In essence, this is a price-action composite for a "typical" year based on the record of the last 19 years.

The record suggests a four-part year:

Winter rally: November through February
Spring and summer rally: May through August
March and September are times to clean up the portfolio.
October is the month to avoid.