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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (33785)	4/5/2002 8:35:47 AM
From: Secret_Agent_Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

MARCH FACTORY PAYROLLS -38,000, CONSTRUCTION -37,000 FEB. PAYROLLS REVISED DOWN TO -2,000 FROM +66,000 MARCH US PAYROLLS +58,000 VS. +40,000 EXPECTED MARCH US JOBLESS RATE UP TO 5.7%; 5.6% EXPECTED

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (33785)	4/6/2002 6:29:33 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

"If I were short- I'd be very afraid of today's labor lies cake. They're baking it up right now. Would be just the perfect time to ramp the market." Terry, so what do you say about a market that is unable to run with what is initially perceived as good news? The bulls had a chance to run with it. Stocks like Dell and RFMD were poised to make some kind of move and they did not. I can tell you that I just don't see it happening. Any move higher is a headfake besides an opportunity to short. Just look at DIS, which I have been laying on for weeks now, the stock climbed .68 on Friday and may climb a little bit more this week. But I can tell you that any move higher will be short lived plus represent a great shorting opportunity. Ditto for MERQ up a dollar on Friday. A few weeks ago when the charts were strong after that huge runup in the beginning of March I said bullish individual charts would ultimately lead the indicies higher and that the exact opposite could be expected if they started to break down. Take a look at this past week's trading in BRCM, AHAA, VRTS, BRKS, NTAP, SEBL, ORCL...just to name a few. All these companies are bleeding badly. What about the bulls favorite sector the semis? Forget about the AMAT and NVLS just for a second and focus on some secondary players like MU, CRUS, TQNT and AMD. These guys would have to be part of the foundation for any serious move higher in the group overall. But look at the way they've traded. Prices are breaking down. What about a company like DELL who supposedly came out with great news this week (at least that's what they want the little guy to think and perceive!) it could not even take out last weeks high in prices. Not exactly a precursor for a strong move up. Now lets go back to one of the horseman carrying this market - NVLS. Check out this past weeks trading. I don't know about anyone else, but my work tells me that the close on Friday was weak if not a complete reversal. Next key support 45. So if the indicies are going to run here and break out strong which companies are going to carry them? The pressure that is beating down on stocks is just going to be huge. Everytime companies like JNPR try to mount an advance the market chops its legs off. JNPR is just one more that I see huge pressure bearing down on. Even the bios which I have been mentioning for weeks, stocks like CHIR and HGSI are rolling over and in the case of HGSI just hit a new 52wk low with Friday's close. So I have been bearish and I remain so especially in light of the fact that every prominent technician on the street says there read on the markets is flashing green. Trust me, many of them are sitting in their offices right now with deep reservations in what their seeing. How do you back peddle out of a call you made just three weeks ago. This weeks action will once again be crucial. Stock prices, imo, will not have the luxury of trading in a range. The trading in CHKP could be the trailblazer for a whole group of stocks that are just sitting on a cliff. Let me just finish off by saying that I honestly hope that I'm wrong. I understand perfectly well what falling equity prices mean to our economy, jobs and the overall mood of our country. Time will tell. Regards, SO