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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (49560)	4/5/2002 10:27:48 AM
From: Claude Cormier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

<I seriously doubt Bay has 100% gold & silver> It is true. BAY has a rather unique deposit. <nobody does silver is mined with copper, zinc, lead in 99% of cases> There are many deposits that have only gold and silver. <so many mines are shut down, and with them their silver production this has led to the annual shortfall of 150 moz silver> I agree with you that we are seeing some mines and smelters shut down. But they are not the reason for the 150M shortfall in the supply of silver. This shortfall existed before the recession. It was present every years during the last decade. Furthermore, because of the recession, there is also a drop in industrial demand for silver... so the shortfall is now smaller, closer to 100M ounces. But still it is a deficit which should be good long term for metal prices. <soon the silver will be viewed as far more important than the zinc in Apex mines> I agree again. But the problem I see is that if base metals prices return to their lower levels because of a double dip recession or even a depression, APEX make take years before they start production. The cost at BAY are a bit higher than APEX of course, and it is much smaller. But BAY has also a much smaller market capitalization. I am working on a comparison of the silver plays... will let you know On Reserves, PAAS has the largest resources. But you are right that APEX has the largest reserves I think. But keep in mind that leverage is best calculated by the number of ounces produced by dollars of market cap. Even if a company has the largest reserves, if its market value is very high the leverage diminish. All considered, I like SIL for the long term, but don't think it is the best silver play.