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To: Les H who wrote (1732)	4/13/2002 8:58:01 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29597

9-month cycle cycle tendencies 10-week 20-week 40-week SPX change high low Sep 21 start start start 965 none Oct 16 green green green 1097 +132 1101 +136 N.A. Nov 7 yellow green green 1115 + 18 1126 + 29 1052 - 42 Nov 30 red yellow green 1139 + 24 1163 + 48 1054 - 61 Dec 26 green yellow green 1149 + 10 1173 + 34 1114 - 25 Jan 16 yellow red yellow 1127 - 22 1177 + 28 1127 - 22 Feb 8 red red yellow 1096 - 31 1139 + 12 1078 - 49 Mar 5 green green yellow 1146 + 50 1157 + 61 1074 - 22 Mar 28 yellow green yellow 1147 + 1 1173 + 27 1131 - 15 Apr 19 red yellow red 1111 - 36 1148 + 1 1102 - 45 May 14 green yellow red Jun 6 yellow red red Jun 28 red red red 22-week cycle Sep 21 SPX trough Dec 7 midpoint SPX crest Feb 22 SPX trough May 10 midpoint SPX crest Jul 26 SPX trough 70% probability crest area is Nov 30 (week 10) to Jan 4 (week 15) next 70% probability crest area is May 3 (week 10) to June 7 (week 15) 26-week Dow cycle troughs Oct 9, 98 Dow 7379 Apr 9, 99 Dow 9826 length 26 weeks Oct 22, 99 Dow 9884 length 28 weeks Mar 10, 00 Dow 9611 length 20 weeks Oct 20, 00 Dow 9571 length 32 weeks Mar 23, 01 Dow 9106 length 22 weeks Sep 21, 01 Dow 8062 length 26 weeks sample size 6 total 156 weeks average 26 weeks st dev 2 weeks Feb 22, 01 22 weeks minus 2 standard deviations Mar 22, 01 26 weeks average cycle length Apr 19, 01 30 weeks plus 2 standard deviations Possible targets for approximate low SPX of current row made near April 19 (1) using the distance for each downleg downleg 1: -43 points in 5 days; from 1174 on March 19 to 1131 on March 26 upleg 2: +23 points in 2 days; from 1131 on March 26 to 1154 on March 28 downleg 3: -43 points in 6 days; from 1154 on March 28 to 1111 on April 8 upleg 4: +20 points in 2 days; from 1111 on April 8 to 1131 on April 11 downleg 5: -43 points in 5-6 days; from 1131 on April 11 to 1088 on April 17-18 (2) using the distance from the previous row's close (1147) a. maximum distance in a previous red/bear row 1086 = 1147 - 61 b. minimum distance in a previous red/bear row 1098 = 1147 - 49 c. average of the two distances 1092 = 1147 - 55 (3) using the distance from the previous row's high (1173) a. maximum distance in a previous red/bear row 1074 = 1173 - (1177 - 1078) b. minimum distance in a previous red/bear row 1101 = 1173 - (1126 - 1054) c. average of the two distances 1087 = 1173 - 86 (4) using a fib multiple of the first downleg from 1173 to 1130 a. 1113 (1156 - 43) b. 1086 (1156 - 1.62 * 43) c. 1070 (1156 - 2.00 * 43) (5) using a fib retracement off the February low a. 1113 (0.62 retracement) b. 1097 (0.76 retracement) c. 1073 (1.00 retracement) (6) using a fib retracement off the September low a. 1119 (0.24 retracement) b. 1086 (0.38 retracement) c. 1059 (0.50 retracement)