People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.
Why don't you start by reading Hersh Cohen, a 30 year investment pro with Smith Barney in this weekends Barrons on page L14 for insight on the BULLISH PERSPECTIVE.
I gave you all weekend to retract or extend an olive branch on your "diatribe". You decided otherwise.
You have this obsession with Stephen Roach and his accuracy of economic analysis.
You seem to have a very poor memory Ken.
First: Your MITA Post 9878 to me:
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To:J.T. who wrote (9871)
From: High-Tech East Thursday, Jan 24, 2002 3:57 PM
View Replies (1) | Respond to 9883 of 11504
This rally has into the first full week of February (7th and 8th).
I am betting these indices will lead the SPX back above the 200 day MA once and for all... this next assault.
Once this materializes, we will be on our way to that coveted SPX 1,200 + close for the first time since August 7 , 2001.
... quotes from three different posts of yours ... J.T., you have certainly been correct about the rally in equities yesterday and today ... great call ... and, by the way, knowing I was short the S&P, thanks again for the heads up ...
... and maybe we will see 1200 in the relative short run (and be above the 200 DMA) ... although I think the SPX or SPH2 will break down and probably take out the September lows between now and the end of February ...
1)... it seems that your analysis leads you to a conclusion that the bear market and recession are both about over ... and I think that is off target ... we are seeing SOME good indications of recovery right now, but my bet is that the most we will see is some rebuilding of inventories ... profits are a long way from recovering ... 2)my thought is that the earliest the recession might start to end is about 12 months from now ...
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The very same day you are saying the recession will last upwards of 12 months, an economist is predicting the recession is over and the NBER has all but confirmed most recently by saying the recession is winding down:
SCU economist declares: 'The recession is over'
Noted economist Mario Belotti delivers 33rd annual national economic forecast
SANTA CLARA, Calif.-Jan.24, 2002 - "The recession is over," declared noted Santa Clara University economist Mario Belotti, opening his 33rd annual national economic forecast with a statement of confidence this afternoon at the University's de Saisset Museum.
In a presentation billed as "The Last Word" by Barry Z. Posner, dean of SCU's Leavey School of Business, Belotti ticked off a strong of data and economic indicators to support his conclusion that the U.S. economy already is showing signs of breaking out of the 2001 slump.
Posner said that while the report by Belotti, a professor at Santa Clara University for 42 years and the W.M. Keck Foundation Professor at the business school, would be the last in this format, he will continue to teach economics to new generations of business students at the Silicon Valley university.
Belotti, a specialist in monetary policy and interest rates, has traveled the world as an economic consultant in Europe, the Pacific Rim and in developing countries.
Belotti cited significant, positive economic signs in the last several weeks from several sources:
The Leading Economic Indicators, best in 15 months
Institute of Supply and Management, manufacturing growth highest in 14 months
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, first positive index of manufacturing in 14 months
Durable goods orders increased
Orders for semiconductors increased
Unemployment in Silicon Valley is down
Housing starts permits increased
Unemployment claims are declining, lowest in six months
Productivity declines stopped
"December is the month that the recession ended," he told his audience of approximately 180 business leaders, faculty and students.
About the Leavey School of Business
The Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University began in 1926, and was one of the first business schools in the country to receive national accreditation. The business school's MBA program was one of the original group of MBA programs in 1961 to be accredited by the American Assembly of Collegiate Schools of Business.
It offers a professional education emphasizing humanistic and moral development as well as technical proficiency. Approximately 900 students are enrolled in the MBA program, rated one of the top 20 part-time programs in the U.S., attracting working professionals in Silicon Valley. Its undergraduate business programs are ranked third in California by U.S. News and World Report.
Santa Clara University, located in the heart of northern California's Silicon Valley, is a Jesuit university with 7,350 students. Ranked second among regional universities in the West by U.S. News & World Report, SCU is known nationally for its graduate and professional schools and its strong undergraduate curriculum.
For more information about the Leavey School of Business, see business.scu.edu. To arrange an interview with Prof. Belotti on Jan.25, call media relations at 408-554-5126.
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You have an even greater obsession that I "dismiss his analysis" (ROACH) and because of this you somehow question my immaturity and investment skills.
Second: In MITA post 9883 response back to you, I say Mr. Roach is a very good economist. I also suggested broadening your economic horizons other than looking for only a Bearish bent or the glass is empty type economists:
To:High-Tech East who wrote (9878)
From: J.T. Thursday, Jan 24, 2002 10:41 PM
View Replies (1) | Respond to 9883 of 11504
... and maybe we will see 1200 in the relative short run (and be above the 200 DMA) ... although I think the SPX or SPH2 will break down and probably take out the September lows between now and the end of February ...
I think the market has the potential to have a meaningful pullback towards the end of Feb and into March as warnings season commences. I find it hard to believe we will take out the Sep lows by end of Feb let alone March considering we had one of the all time highs (if not the all time high in the 5 day cboe p/c equity/index average well around 1.20). This coupled with historic quadruple and quintuple oversold market conditions. I believe we have a 40% shot of testing the end Oct 30 - 31 lows in the end Feb - Mar time frame.
I never said anything about a recession being over as I think we have two more quarters to work off inventories from the excesses of Y2K post parade bubble. The market will pick this up towards the middle of Feb and into March as companies pre-announce again.
But I also know the market is a discounting mechanism and the downdraft will be quick and fleeting as it looks into year end and into 2003. It is this next forthcoming bottom in 2002 (which will be a higher bottom vs Sep 21) which will plant the seeds for a monster rally that will lead the DOW roughly 50% higher to the intraday high top in 2003. That is, 2002 intraday low DOW 9,000 will lead us to DOW 13,500 intraday highs in 2003. For COMP 2002 intraday lows COMP 1,700, we could see an 80% increase to the 2003 intraday high top or COMP 3,060. For SPX, 2002 intraday low 1,080, we could see a 40% + higher increase to 2003 intraday highs which will take us to SPX 1,520 + area.
Mr. Roach is a very good economist... His analysis was early during the latter stages of the bull run (as many of us were) but he has been dead on the last two years.
I would get an optimistic economic point of view to offset his and take that analysis for the market outlook in 2003.
I tend to be more optimistic for the broad market returns in 2003 vs 2002.
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Last I checked, not only have we not broken the September lows, but we have not broken SPX 1,080, COMP 1,700 or DOW 9,000 close which I have forecasted prior to SPX 1080 test.
Best Regards, J.T. |
