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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: U.B. Green who wrote (47782)	4/5/2002 5:57:56 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

I looked at the chart, and everything started to break loose around 3:00 PM, no idea what precipitated that, maybe a single large sell order, or possibly the realization that the valuation on that one is quite rich, particularly when many in the sector are breaking down. I would look at the opening Monday for a clue, but look for an exit, since on "valuation" metrics, it is still very rich, that one was a "making new highs" selection with good prospects of growth of 30% or more. It seems these prospects may not be sufficient if the sector's valuations are going to be ratcheted down. Soon, even NSTK will again be in buying range ($13?) despite a major buying stock last week at $20. Zeev

To: U.B. Green who wrote (47782)	4/6/2002 9:35:44 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 99280

Well, later last night, IART stated the following: biz.yahoo.com Namely, they will "meet" the $.12 expectation for the quarter, but the street must have expected more (I did, I had them earning $.14). That news came too late to impact the stock, but as you said, someone knew ahead of us.... and picked up only on the slower sales, not the "meeting profits". The price of the stocks had in it better expectations, so apart of a bounce don't expect too much. It will probably "stall" under $26 for the next few weeks months. Zeev Zeev

To: U.B. Green who wrote (47782)	4/6/2002 10:22:17 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 99280

I have received a number of PM on my move into AETH (despite my general bearish stance). So here is a copy of one response that could make my rationale clearer to all interested: I bought AETH based on Value. I have played it a number of times in the last few months and have explained on the thread my rationale (simply do in the "this subject only" category a search under zeev aeth and you can find all my musing on AETH). I just did it and here is a summary: From February on I had an OB of $3.81 (#reply-17217981, #reply-17094001) so my buying here is just being consistent with a long range plan. After making some outsized profits on AETH earlier last year, I went back into it a number of times, the most recent, buying at $7.18 (#reply-16522675) on 10/18 selling at 8.06 (#reply-16620444) on 11/7. Buying again at $6.8 and running away at 7.05 (#reply-16948422, #reply-16997077) few days later, and then even taking a small loss by buying at $5.91 on 2/5 (#reply-17015312) and selling a month later at $5.22 (#reply-17172713). Buying at $3.81 here after selling at $5.22 seems like a bargain (g). Their net tangible book (after taking out goodwill) is $8.95/share, their net cash (after taking off both long term and short term debt and "other liabilities" off that cash, a very conservative approach) is $6/share. Their burn rate is going down fast, but is still around $1.25/share per quarter, but they have 10 quarters of cash on hand to get through the current recession, I think they have a good chance to survive, and a strong market rally should get them to the $5 to $6 range IMTO. Of course, in the next few weeks, they could go even lower than that OB I had in since early February. Zeev